Fig. 3.

Uncertainty quantification. (A) 85%/90%/95% credible intervals (bars) and median value (line) for a subset of the model parameters. By reproduction number we mean the basic reproduction number in absence of NPIs and diagnostic testing (see Materials & Methods for more details on its computation). (B) The number of individuals in different compartments is plotted as a function of time for both the model fitted with seroprevalence data and the one fitted without. In the bottom-right panel the cumulative number of cases detected by the healthcare authorities is also plotted for reference. The bands correspond to 90% posterior credible intervals, while the solid line denotes the median value. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)