Table 2.
Data Source, Distribution, and Estimates of Parameters for ZIKV Sexual Transmission Risk Models
| Parameter | Variable | Data Source | Distribution | Estimated Median (2.5%-97.5% Range) | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proportion of individuals that travel internationally with partner | P TravelingWithPartner | US Dept of Commerce [29, 30] | Uniform (0.23–0.37) | 0.3 (0.23–0.37) | All |
| Proportion of males who are MSM | P msm | Meta-analysis of US population-based surveys [31] | Uniform (0.025–0.035) | 0.03 (0.025–0.035) | Male-to-male |
| ZIKV persistence, days | |||||
| By RNA detection in semen | t Da ysInfectiousZIKV | Prospective studies [32, 33] | Log normal (42, 0.65)/d | 42 (12–150) | Male-to-female, male-to-male |
| By RNA detection in vaginal fluid | Systematic review, prospective study [15, 32] | Log normal (1, 0.95)/d | 1 (0–7) | Female-to-male | |
| By virus isolation in semen | Prospective studies [32, 33] | Log normal (10, 0.65)/d | 10 (3–36) | Male-to-female, male-to-male | |
| Sex acts per day | |||||
| Vaginal and anal acts among MSW | n SexActsPerDay | NSFG, NSSHB [34–36] | Log normal (2.5, 1.2)/28 | 0.09 (0.01–0.94) | Male-to-female |
| Vaginal acts among women | NSFG [34] | Log normal (2.9, 1.15)/28 | 0.10 (0.01–1.07) | Female-to-male | |
| Insertive anal acts among MSM | Secondary analyses of GSS, NHSLS, HIVNET VPS, NHBS [37, 38] | Log normal (75/365, 0.5) | 0.20 (0.08–0.56) | Male-to-male | |
| Proportion of sex acts with condom use | |||||
| Vaginal and anal acts among MSW | P CondomUse | NSSHB [39] | Beta (3.4, 12) | 0.21 (0.06–0.45) | Male-to-female |
| Vaginal acts among women | NSSHB [39] | Beta (2.6, 11) | 0.18 (0.04–0.43) | Female-to-male | |
| Insertive anal acts among MSM | NHBSS [40] | Beta (13, 10) | 0.57 (0.35–0.75) | Male-to-male | |
| Proportion of condom use that effectively prevents ZIKV transmission | |||||
| Sex acts among MSW | P CondomEffectivity | Meta-analysis of prospective and case-control/cross-sectional studies [41] | Beta (28.2, 12.7) | 0.69 (0.54–0.82) | Male-to-female |
| Sex acts among women | Meta-analysis of EXPLORE and VAX 004 trials [42] | Beta (6.2, 4.9) | 0.56 (0.27–0.82) | Female-to-male | |
| Sex acts among MSM | Meta-analysis of prospective and case-control/cross-sectional studies [41] | Beta (56.2, 21.8) | 0.72 (0.62–0.81) | Male-to-male |
Abbreviations: GSS, General Social Survey; HIVNET VPS, HIVNET Vaccine Preparedness Study; MSM, men who have sex with men; MSW, men who have sex with women; NHBS, National HIV Behavioral Surveillance; NHSLS, National Health and Social Life Survey; NSFG, National Survey of Family Growth; NSSHB, National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior; ZIKV, Zika virus.