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. 2022 Dec 28;30(4):656–667. doi: 10.1093/jamia/ocac256

Figure 4.

Figure 4.

Models’ performance at select prediction horizons during 24 prior to ECMO initiation. (A) Development cohort: area under ROC for ForecastECMO, PF ratio LR, SOFA score, PRESET score LR, LR of all included variables, and Clinical GBT models at the 18-h prediction horizon. ForecastECMO outperformed all other models: PF ratio LR, SOFA score, PRESET score LR, LR of all included variables, and Clinical GBT models with AUROC of 0.94 [CI: 0.93–0.95] versus 0.52, 0.56, 0.66, 0.92 [CI: 0.91–0.93], and 0.82 [CI: 0.8–0.83], respectively. (B) Development cohort: area under PRC for ForecastECMO, PF ratio LR, SOFA score, PRESET score LR, LR of all included variables, and Clinical GBT models at the 18-h prediction horizon. ForecastECMO outperformed all other models: PF ratio LR, SOFA score, PRESET score LR, LR of all included variables, and Clinical GBT models with AUPRC of 0.546 [CI: 0.51–0.582] versus 0.032, 0.032, 0.077, 0.474 [CI: 0.435–0.512] and 0.248 [CI: 0.218–0.277], respectively. (C) Holdout cohort: area under ROC for ForecastECMO, PF ratio LR, SOFA score, PRESET score LR, LR of all included variables, and Clinical GBT models at the 18-h prediction horizon. ForecastECMO outperformed all other models: PF ratio LR, SOFA score, PRESET score LR, LR of all included variables, and Clinical GBT models with AUROC of 0.952 [CI: 0.951–0.953] versus 0.564, 0.59, 0.726, 0.908 [CI: 0.908–0.908], and 0.889 [CI: 0.887–0.89], respectively. (D) Holdout cohort: area under PRC for ForecastECMO, PF ratio LR, SOFA score, PRESET score LR, LR of all included variables, and Clinical GBT models at the 18-h prediction horizon. ForecastECMO outperformed all other models: PF ratio LR, SOFA score, PRESET score LR, LR of all included variables, and Clinical GBT models AUPRC of 0.376 [CI: 0.37–0.382] versus 0.011, 0.015, 0.039, 0.262 [CI: 0.261–0.262], and 0.345 [CI: 0.341–0.382], respectively. AUPRC: area under precision recall curve; AUROC: area under receiver operator curve; ECMO: extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; GBT: Gradient Boosting Tree; LR: logistic regression; PF: PaO2/FiO2; PRESET: PREdiction of Survival on ECMO Therapy; ROC: receiver operator curve; SOFA: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.