Table 3.
Summary of observed data and modelled outputs (median and 95% CrI in parenthesis) by respective time periods in 2020 for wild-type SARS-CoV-2 transmission
| Observed data (●) and modelled outputs (◆) | Time period in 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Jan–Dec | Jan 18–Feb 29 | Mar 1–Apr 6 | Apr 7–Jun 18 | Jun 19–Jul 12 | Jul 13–Dec 31 | |
| ● Imported cases | ||||||
| Isolated for testing on arrival or quarantined | 1653 | 0 | 50 | 5 | 78 | 1520 |
| Not quarantined | 547 | 29 | 497 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| ● Local cases (by time of isolation) | ||||||
| Linked | 1505 | 65 | 606 | 610 | 113 | 111 |
| Unlinked | 864 | 20 | 204 | 420 | 107 | 113 |
| ◆ Missed cases | 4400 (2400–11,000) | 25 (8–100) | 730 (230–3600) | 2200 (1500–4100) | 280 (100–1100) | 1100 (360–2800) |
| ◆ Total cases (adjusted by time of infection and missed cases) | 7100 (4800–14,000) | 130 (90–220) | 1900 (1300–4900) | 2900 (2200–5100) | 590 (350–1500) | 1400 (620–3100) |
| ● ICU cases (by time of isolation) | 86 | 13 | 44 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| ● Deaths (by time of isolation) | 22 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| ◆ Case ICU risk (%) | 3.3 (2.5–4.0) | 23.2 (16.2–32.4) | 4.0 (3.0–5.0) | 2.0 (1.5–2.4) | 0.3 (0.2–0.4) | 0 (0–0) |
| ◆ Infection ICU risk (%) | 1.2 (0.6–1.8) | 18.2 (10.8–26.3) | 2.4 (1.0–3.7) | 0.5 (0.3–0.7) | 0.2 (0.07–0.3) | 0 (0–0) |
| ◆ Case fatality ratio (%) | 0.8 (0.6–1.0) | 3.8 (2.6–5.3) | 1.2 (0.9–1.5) | 0.5 (0.4–0.6) | 0 (0–0) | 0 (0–0) |
| ◆ Infection fatality ratio (%) | 0.3 (0.2–0.5) | 3.0 (1.7–4.3) | 0.7 (0.3–1.1) | 0.1 (0.07–0.2) | 0 (0–0) | 0 (0–0) |