Table 2.

Detailed Description of the Net Benefit Estimation for “Treat All with Treatment j” and “Treat Patients according to the Prediction Model” Strategies on the Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Example^a

Treat All with					Treat according to the Model
	Placebo (“Treat None”)	Glatiramer Acetate	Dimethyl Fumarate	Natalizumab	Placebo (“Treat None”)	Glatiramer Acetate	Dimethyl Fumarate	Natalizumab	Total
Treatment rate	0%	100%	100%	100%	$p_0^{Dat{a}_s}$	$p_1^{Dat{a}_s}$	$p_2^{Dat{a}_s}$	$p_3^{Dat{a}_s}$	$\sum _{j=0}^J{p}_j^{Dat{a}_s}$
Event rate	${\hat{\epsilon }}_0$ as a meta-analysis of all placebo arms in $\mathrm{Data}$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_1={\hat{\epsilon }}_0\times {\mathrm{RR}}_1^{\mathrm{Data}}$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_2={\hat{\epsilon }}_0\times {\mathrm{RR}}_2^{\mathrm{Data}}$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_3=\stackrel{\times }{{\epsilon }_0}$ ${\mathrm{RR}}_3^{\mathrm{Data}}$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,0}$ as a meta-analysis of all placebo arms in $Dat{a}_s$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,1}={\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,0}\times {\mathrm{RR}}_1^{Dat{a}_s}$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,2}={\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,0}\times {\mathrm{RR}}_2^{Dat{a}_s}$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,3}={\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,0}\times$ ${\mathrm{RR}}_3^{Dat{a}_s}$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_s=\sum _{j=0}^J{p}_j^{Dat{a}_s}\times {\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,\mathrm{j}}$
Decrease in event rate	0	${\hat{\epsilon }}_0-{\hat{\epsilon }}_1$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_0-{\hat{\epsilon }}_2$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_0-{\hat{\epsilon }}_3$	${\hat{\epsilon }}_0-\sum _{j=0}^J{p}_j^{Dat{a}_s}\times {\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,\mathrm{j}}$
Net strategy benefit	0	$N{B}_1={\hat{\epsilon }}_0-{\hat{\epsilon }}_1-{\mathit{T}}_{\mathit{GA}}$	$N{B}_2={\hat{\epsilon }}_0-{\hat{\epsilon }}_2-{\mathit{T}}_{\mathit{DF}}$	$N{B}_3={\hat{\epsilon }}_0-{\hat{\epsilon }}_3-{\mathit{T}}_N$	$N{B}_{\mathrm{model}}={\hat{\epsilon }}_0-\sum _{j=0}^J{p}_j^{Dat{a}_s}\times {\hat{\epsilon }}_{s,\mathrm{j}}-\sum _{j=1}^J{p}_j^{Dat{a}_s}\times {\mathit{T}}_j$

^aThe threshold values for glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab are noted as $T_{\mathrm{GA}},T_{\mathrm{DF}},$ and $T_N$ respectively.