Table 2. Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios to assess sensitivity of excess mortality estimates.

Factors	Optimistic Scenario	Pessimistic Scenario
Change in expected deaths (associated with population growth and natural increases in CDR)	There was a 2% increase in expected deaths in each state.	There was no change in expected deaths relative to 2019 levels.
Baseline coverage	Baseline coverage in the data was correctly estimated.	Baseline coverage in the data was overestimated by 5% in each state.
Change in coverage in the data	There was a 5% relative increase in coverage in the data. In other words, in each state, the fraction of total deaths which appear in the available data increased by 5% during the pandemic period relative to 2019 levels; but we cap registration completion in any given state at 100%.	There was a 5% relative decrease in coverage in the data in each state during the pandemic period.
Mortality in other states	The remaining states and territories saw a 20% lower P-score/excess mortality than STAR12.	The remaining states and territories saw a 20% higher P-score/excess mortality than STAR12.