Fig 6. Simulation of different scenarios reveals a significant impact of the school closure decree on March 17th, 2020.

Results for a baseline scenario altered for the condition that schools were never closed (#1, A), closed at the end of the semester (#2, B) and closed with a delay from the original decree’s publication date (#3, C). The total number of additional deaths in each scenario is the difference between the simulation outcome and the reported number. For scenario #3, the delay in weeks is colour-coded, and the additional number of deaths is shown in an insert. See Fig 5 for panel description.