Table 2. Cost-effectiveness Results and Oral Health Outcomes Among Children Residing in Dental Health Professional Shortage Areasa.
| Scenarios | Change in dental caries prevalence (percentage point) | Change in cumulative dental caries incidence (millions) | Incremental QALYs gained (thousands) | Incremental cost, $ millions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percentage increase in budget, with standard length of commitment | ||||
| 5 | −0.45 (−0.54 to −0.36) | −0.35 (−0.44 to −0.27) | 75.76 (59.44 to 92.08) | −105.53 (−140.93 to −70.14) |
| 10 | −0.91 (−1.00 to −0.82) | −0.70 (−0.79 to −0.62) | 150.58 (134.29 to 166.87) | −211.39 (−246.73 to −176.05) |
| 15 | −1.36 (−1.45 to −1.27) | −1.06 (−1.14 to −0.97) | 224.77 (208.49 to 241.05) | −317.60 (−352.89 to −282.30) |
| 20 | −1.81 (−1.90 to −1.72) | −1.41 (−1.50 to −1.32) | 300.05 (283.73 to 316.36) | −423.43 (−458.67 to −388.18) |
| 25 | −2.27 (−2.36 to −2.18) | −1.76 (−1.85 to −1.68) | 375.63 (359.32 to 391.95) | −529.08 (−564.28 to −493.88) |
| 30 | −2.72 (−2.81 to −2.63) | −2.11 (−2.20 to −2.03) | 450.50 (434.30 to 466.69) | −634.07 (−669.22 to −598.91) |
| Percentage increase in budget, with 1 additional year of commitment | ||||
| 0 | −0.30 (−0.39 to −0.22) | −0.27 (−0.36 to −0.19) | 57.28 (40.95 to 73.62) | −92.92 (−128.27 to −57.56) |
| 5 | −0.47 (−0.56 to −0.38) | −0.37 (−0.45 to −0.28) | 77.98 (61.65 to 94.31) | −110.37 (−145.72 to −75.01) |
| 10 | −0.94 (−1.02 to −0.85) | −0.73 (−0.82 to −0.65) | 155.49 (139.15 to 171.82) | −220.98 (−256.29 to −185.67) |
| 15 | −1.41 (−1.49 to −1.32) | −1.10 (−1.18 to −1.01) | 233.32 (217.04 to 249.60) | −331.39 (−366.69 to −296.10) |
| 20 | −1.88 (−1.96 to −1.79) | −1.46 (−1.55 to −1.38) | 311.59 (295.28 to 327.91) | −441.29 (−476.54 to −406.04) |
| 25 | −2.34 (−2.43 to −2.26) | −1.83 (−1.92 to −1.74) | 390.60 (374.28 to 406.91) | −551.59 (−586.79 to −516.39) |
| 30 | −2.81 (−2.90 to −2.73) | −2.20 (−2.28 to −2.11) | 467.81 (451.62 to 484.01) | −661.61 (−696.76 to −626.45) |
Abbreviations: NHANES, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; QALY, quality-adjusted life years.
a
Results were obtained from 10 000 iterations with Monte Carlo sampling, generating 95% credible intervals from the simulation model. These estimates are not direct outputs of the restricted NHANES data.