Table 2 –
Comparison of observed and predicted outcomes at 30 d in patients undergoing emergency general surgery cases.
| Characteristic | Observed no. (%) | Surgeon prediction | POTTER estimation | NSQIP estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortality | 23 (15) | |||
| Mean % (SD) | 17 (23) | 13 (15) | 13 (17) | |
| Median % [IQR] | 9 [1-25] | 5 [1-21] | 7 [2-16] | |
| O:E ratio (mean) | 0.89 | 1.21 | 1.18 | |
| O:E ratio (median) | 1.80 | 3.23 | 2.22 | |
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.843 (0.771-0.915) | 0.848 (0.780-0.914) | 0.815 (0.734-0.897) | |
| Brier score | 0.114 | 0.112 | 0.115 | |
| MechanicalVentilation >48 h | 45 (30) | |||
| Mean % (SD) | 30 (36) | 17 (19) | – | |
| Median % [IQR] | 10 [2-60] | 10 [2-22] | – | |
| O:E ratio (mean) | 1.00 | 1.82 | – | |
| O:E ratio (median) | 3.00 | 3.10 | – | |
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.874 (0.807-0.942) | 0.876 (0.815-0.937) | – | |
| Brier score | 0.126 | 0.175 | – | |
| Renal failure | 14/140 (10) | |||
| Mean % (SD) | 19 (27) | 3 (6) | 4 (4) | |
| Median % [IQR] | 10 [2-20] | 1 [0-4] | 2 [1-4] | |
| O:E ratio (mean) | 0.52 | 3.22 | 2.81 | |
| O:E ratio (median) | 1.00 | 10.42 | 4.44 | |
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.801 (0.660-0.941) | 0.722 (0.561-0.884) | 0.689 (0.567-0.811) | |
| Brier score | 0.093 | 0.068 | 0.077 | |
| Intra-abdominal infection | 11/122 (9) | |||
| Mean % (SD) | 21 (21) | 4 (3) | – | |
| Median % [IQR] | 15 [5-25] | 3 [2-4] | – | |
| O:E ratio (mean) | 0.43 | 2.52 | – | |
| O:E ratio (median) | 0.60 | 2.91 | – | |
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.514 (0.298-0.725) | 0.625 (0.410-0.840) | – | |
| Brier score | 0.140 | 0.086 | – |