Fig. 4.

Simulation results of probability of decision rules to graduate (P(Go), drop (P(No Go) and continue to next analyses (at EA)/Indeterminate (at FA) using both RB and SC for decision making in the null case

Note: Each ISA will utilize a numeric value of 0.01 for PL, 0.99 for PU at an EA and 0.25 for PL, 0.85 for PU at the FA.

EA, evaluation analysis; FA, final analysis; ISA, intervention specific appendix; ISA 1, starts enrollment at the start of the platform; ISA 2 begins enrollment 12–13 months after the start of the platform; ISA 3 begins enrollment 18–19 months; P (Go), probability of a go; P (No Go), probability of a no go; PL, posterior probability lower cutoffs at which an intervention will be dropped from the platform; PU, posterior probability upper cutoffs for graduating an intervention; RB, Restrictive Behaviors; SC, Social Communication.