Table 2.

Effect of unexpected longevity on fertility

	ΔTotal fertility rate
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Unexpected change in e65	–5.38**	–7.09**	–5.58**	–6.74**	–12.23**
	(2.49)	(2.71)	(2.38)	(2.52)	(4.45)
Expected change in e65	0.35	–2.22	–0.08	–3.82	–11.75**
	(2.84)	(2.95)	(2.50)	(2.79)	(5.52)
L.growth (GDP per capita)		0.25**	0.22**	0.16*	–0.06
		(0.09)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.14)
L.diff (old dependency ratio)			1.16*	1.27*	0.31
			(0.65)	(0.68)	(0.92)
L.diff (young dependency ratio)			–0.67**	–0.89**	–0.57
			(0.29)	(0.41)	(0.47)
L.diff (female LFP rate)				0.86**	0.64*
				(0.34)	(0.36)
L.diff (old tertiary rate)					–0.53
					(0.72)
L.diff (young tertiary rate)					0.44
					(0.35)
Country FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Dependent variable mean	–4.67	–4.15	–3.39	–0.88	0.44
N	1,113	1,071	999	692	378

Notes. The dependent variable is the growth in total fertility rate. Unexpected and expected change in life expectancy at age 65 (e65) are defined as in Eq. 15 with n = 5. All variables are averaged over 5-year periods. L. denotes 5-year lags. See Table 1 for variable definitions and data sources. Robust standard errors in parentheses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01