Table 5.

Effect of unexpected longevity, by time of forecast

	ΔTotal fertility rate			ΔPublic old-age spending			ΔPublic family spending
	5 years	10 years	15 years	5 years	10 years	15 years	5 years	10 years	15 years
Unexpected change in e65	–6.74**	–3.54*	–3.52*	19.61**	11.48*	8.33*	–11.25*	–10.11**	–10.18**
	(2.52)	(1.75)	(1.86)	(8.19)	(5.66)	(4.28)	(6.38)	(4.92)	(4.17)
Expected change in e65	–3.82	–0.63	–4.97**	18.88*	12.67*	7.98	–9.77	–14.38*	–21.37***
	(2.79)	(1.74)	(2.27)	(9.58)	(6.85)	(5.84)	(8.20)	(7.26)	(7.09)
L.growth(GDP per capita)	0.16*	0.09	0.05	0.06	0.16	0.19	0.64***	0.55***	0.55**
	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.09)	(0.16)	(0.11)	(0.15)	(0.22)	(0.19)	(0.20)
L.diff(old dependency ratio)	1.27*	2.20***	1.83**	3.70**	3.18*	1.49	6.76***	6.62***	6.18***
	(0.68)	(0.68)	(0.73)	(1.54)	(1.59)	(1.56)	(2.36)	(2.27)	(2.01)
L.diff(young dependency ratio)	–0.89**	–1.08***	–0.80**	–0.04	–0.02	0.48	–0.82	–0.39	–0.60
	(0.41)	(0.33)	(0.33)	(0.93)	(1.00)	(0.85)	(1.37)	(1.39)	(1.20)
L.diff(female LFP rate)	0.86**	0.85**	0.97**
	(0.34)	(0.34)	(0.36)
Country FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Dependent variable mean	-0.88	-0.63	-0.33	5.55	5.60	5.94	8.30	7.79	7.49
N	692	669	638	681	656	617	681	656	617

Notes. Unexpected and expected change in life expectancy at age 65 (e65) are defined as in Eq. 15 with n set to 5, 10, or 15 years in respective columns. All variables are averaged over 5-year periods. L. denotes 5-year lags. See Table 1 for variable definitions and data sources. Robust standard errors in parentheses. *p< 0.10, **p< 0.05, ***p< 0.01