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. 2023 Feb 15;151:e38. doi: 10.1017/S0950268823000195

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© The Author(s) 2023

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.

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Fig. 1. — Simplified model schema. On each day, unvaccinated people become vaccinated, with under-ascertainment ratio and . The probability that a newly vaccinated person has been infected before is proportional to the respective size of the subpopulation of recovered people that are eligible for vaccination Y. Furthermore, on each day, unvaccinated people become infected, with under-ascertainment ratio . The probability that a newly infected person has been infected before is proportional to the respective size of the subpopulation of recovered people that are eligible for reinfection (1 − r)Y, where 1 − r is the relative reinfection probability or ‘recovered immunity’. Recovered individuals are expected to reach eligibility for reinfection/vaccination after an average duration of τ. (Note that in the full model, breakthrough and reinfections of vaccinated individuals are possible (see SM, Sec. ‘Introduction’)).

Inline graphic — Simplified model schema. On each day, unvaccinated people become vaccinated, with under-ascertainment ratio and . The probability that a newly vaccinated person has been infected before is proportional to the respective size of the subpopulation of recovered people that are eligible for vaccination Y. Furthermore, on each day, unvaccinated people become infected, with under-ascertainment ratio . The probability that a newly infected person has been infected before is proportional to the respective size of the subpopulation of recovered people that are eligible for reinfection (1 − r)Y, where 1 − r is the relative reinfection probability or ‘recovered immunity’. Recovered individuals are expected to reach eligibility for reinfection/vaccination after an average duration of τ. (Note that in the full model, breakthrough and reinfections of vaccinated individuals are possible (see SM, Sec. ‘Introduction’)).