Table 1.
Quarter-on-quarter Real GDP Growth – Domestic Variables Only.
| OLS | 2SEC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020–21 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020–2021 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| (Intercept) | 0.58* | 1.82⁎⁎⁎ | 2.25⁎⁎⁎ | 0.29 | 0.39 | 2.30⁎⁎⁎ |
| (0.33) | (0.62) | (0.27) | (0.25) | (0.26) | (0.27) | |
| Δ Daily Deaths per 100K | −0.85 | −2.24 | −0.59 | −1.57* | −6.09⁎⁎⁎ | 0.05 |
| (0.53) | (1.86) | (0.56) | (0.83) | (2.06) | (0.70) | |
| Δ Quarterly OSI | −0.07⁎⁎⁎ | −0.10⁎⁎⁎ | −0.02 | −0.07⁎⁎⁎ | −0.11⁎⁎⁎ | −0.02 |
| (0.02) | (0.03) | (0.01) | (0.02) | (0.03) | (0.01) | |
| Lagged Dependent Variable | −0.35⁎⁎⁎ | −0.41⁎⁎⁎ | −0.24⁎⁎⁎ | −0.35⁎⁎⁎ | −0.42⁎⁎⁎ | −0.25⁎⁎⁎ |
| (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | |
| R2 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.25 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 0.23 |
| Time and country FE? | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| First-stage F-statistic | N/A | N/A | N/A | 364.95⁎⁎⁎; 30,072.58⁎⁎⁎ | 167.22⁎⁎⁎; 99,999.00⁎⁎⁎ | 183.14⁎⁎⁎; 2925.20⁎⁎⁎ |
| Num. obs. | 692 | 358 | 334 | 692 | 358 | 334 |
Note: This table uses data from CEIC, Ritchie et al. (2020), Dong et al. (2020), and Hale et al. (2021). Columns 4 through 6 apply a two-stage process. In a first stage, deaths and OSI are separately regressed on cases. In the second stage, the residuals from these regressions are substituted for deaths and OSI in the regressions for GDP growth. Time and country fixed effects are used in the second stage. First-stage F-statistics for Columns 4 through 6 show the F-stat for regressions of actual changes in deaths and OSI on residuals from our first-stage process. Since variation in cases only explains 1 percent of variation in OSI, F-statistics for OSI residuals are mechanically large. Robust standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the country level.
p < 0.10;
⁎⁎p < 0.05;.
p < 0.01.