Table 3.
Quarter-on-quarter Real GDP Growth – Domestic and External Variables.
| 2SEC | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 – 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| (Intercept) | 1.05⁎⁎⁎ | 0.81⁎⁎⁎ | 1.76⁎⁎⁎ |
| (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.15) | |
| Δ Daily Deaths per 100K | −0.75 | −5.35⁎⁎⁎ | 0.28 |
| (0.84) | (1.98) | (0.72) | |
| Δ OSI | −0.09⁎⁎⁎ | −0.15⁎⁎⁎ | −0.01 |
| (0.01) | (0.02) | (0.01) | |
| Lagged Dependent Variable | −0.20⁎⁎⁎ | −0.21⁎⁎⁎ | −0.24⁎⁎⁎ |
| (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | |
| % Δ Real World Imports | 0.35⁎⁎⁎ | 0.21⁎⁎⁎ | 0.02 |
| (0.04) | (0.06) | (0.10) | |
| R^2 | 0.69 | 0.76 | 0.21 |
| Time and country FE? | Country | Country | Country |
| Num. obs. | 692 | 358 | 334 |
Note: This table uses data from CEIC, Ritchie et al. (2020), Dong et al. (2020), Hale et al. (2021), and IFS (2022a, 2022b). All regressions apply a two-stage process. In a first stage, deaths and OSI are separately regressed on cases. In the second stage, the residuals from these regressions are substituted for deaths and OSI in the regressions for GDP growth. Only country fixed effects are used in the second stage due to the collinearity of time fixed effects with the real world imports variable. Robust standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the country level.
*p < 0.10;
⁎⁎p < 0.05;.
⁎⁎⁎
p < 0.01.