Appendix Table 3.

Covariate Lags – Domestic Variables Only.

	OLS			2SEC
	2020–21	2020	2021	2020–2021	2020	2021
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
(Intercept)	0.63*	1.94⁎⁎⁎	2.31⁎⁎⁎	0.31	0.41	2.20⁎⁎⁎
	(0.33)	(0.59)	(0.31)	(0.25)	(0.26)	(0.27)
Δ Daily Deaths per 100K	−0.64	−0.84	−0.70	−0.98	−5.37⁎⁎	0.42
	(0.54)	(1.90)	(0.75)	(0.88)	(2.05)	(0.95)
Δ Quarterly OSI	−0.07⁎⁎⁎	−0.11⁎⁎⁎	−0.02	−0.08⁎⁎⁎	−0.11⁎⁎⁎	−0.02
	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.01)
Lagged Dependent Variable	−0.35⁎⁎⁎	−0.39⁎⁎⁎	−0.25⁎⁎⁎	−0.34⁎⁎⁎	−0.41⁎⁎⁎	−0.24⁎⁎⁎
	(0.03)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.05)	(0.05)
Lag of Δ Daily Deaths per 100K	0.64	5.57*	−0.27	1.76*	2.80	0.90
	(0.75)	(3.08)	(0.75)	(1.00)	(3.25)	(0.83)
Lag of Δ Quarterly OSI	−0.01	−0.02	−0.00	−0.00	−0.02	−0.00
	(0.01)	(0.03)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.03)	(0.01)
R2	0.72	0.78	0.25	0.72	0.79	0.24
Time and country FE?	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Num. obs.	692	358	334	692	358	334

Note: This table uses data from CEIC, Ritchie et al. (2020), Dong et al. (2020), and Hale et al. (2021). Columns 4 through 6 apply a two-stage process. In a first stage, deaths and OSI are separately regressed on cases. In the second stage, the residuals from these regressions are substituted for deaths and OSI in the regressions for GDP growth; the first lag of the residuals are used in Columns 4 through 6. Time and country fixed effects are used throughout. Robust standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the country level.

^⁎p < 0.10;.

^⁎⁎p < 0.05;.

^⁎⁎⁎p < 0.01.