Appendix Table 4.
Quarter-on-quarter Real GDP Growth – Domestic 2SLS with Alternative Simultaneity Correction.
| Our 2SEC | 2SLS w/ First-Month Changes as Instruments | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020–2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020–2021 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| (4) | (5) | (6) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| (Intercept) | 0.29 | 0.39 | 2.30⁎⁎⁎ | 1.09 | 2.38 | 2.21⁎⁎ |
| (0.25) | (0.26) | (0.27) | (1.23) | (2.05) | (0.88) | |
| Δ Daily Deaths per 100K | −1.57* | −6.09⁎⁎⁎ | 0.05 | −0.97 | −3.20* | −0.84⁎⁎ |
| (0.83) | (2.06) | (0.70) | (0.66) | (1.64) | (0.41) | |
| Δ Quarterly OSI | −0.07⁎⁎⁎ | −0.11⁎⁎⁎ | −0.02 | −0.10⁎⁎⁎ | −0.13⁎⁎⁎ | −0.01 |
| (0.02) | (0.03) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.02) | (0.01) | |
| Lagged Dependent Variable | −0.35⁎⁎⁎ | −0.42⁎⁎⁎ | −0.25⁎⁎⁎ | −0.34⁎⁎⁎ | −0.40⁎⁎⁎ | −0.24⁎⁎⁎ |
| (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.03) | (0.05) | (0.05) | |
| R2 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 0.23 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.25 |
| Time and country FE? | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| First-stage F-statistic | 364.95⁎⁎⁎; 30,072.58⁎⁎⁎ | 167.22⁎⁎⁎; 99,999.00⁎⁎⁎ | 183.14⁎⁎⁎; 2925.20⁎⁎⁎ | 321.16⁎⁎⁎ | 101.67⁎⁎⁎ | 158.42⁎⁎⁎ |
| Num. obs. | 692 | 358 | 334 | 692 | 358 | 334 |
Note: This table uses data from CEIC, Ritchie et al. (2020), Dong et al. (2020), and Hale et al. (2021). Columns 1 through 3 apply our preferred two-stage process as shown in Table 1. In a first stage, deaths and OSI are separately regressed on cases. In the second stage, the residuals from these regressions are substituted for deaths and OSI in the regressions for GDP growth. Time and country fixed effects are used in the second stage. First-stage F-statistics for Columns 1 through 3 show the F-stat for regressions of actual changes in deaths and OSI on residuals from our first-stage process. Since variation in cases only explains 1 percent of variation in OSI, F-statistics for OSI residuals are mechanically large. Columns 4 through 6 employ an alternative simultaneity correction. In the first stage, the quarterly change in OSI and deaths are regressed on the change in OSI and deaths from the last month of the previous quarter to the first month of the current quarter (plus the lagged dependent variable, country FE, and time FE). The predicted values are used in the second stage shown. True first stage F-statistics are reported for Columns 4 through 6. Robust standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the country level.
p < 0.10;.
p < 0.05;.
p < 0.01.