Figure 3. Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect Evaluation by Risk-Based Analysis.

CrI indicates credible interval; OR, odds ratio. Risk-based heterogeneity of treatment effect for organ support–free days is shown by risk deciles (ranging from lowest, group 1, to highest, group 10). All patients in risk groups 8 through 10 required respiratory organ support at baseline vs 2 of 1992 (0.1%) patients in risk groups 1 through 6 (see eTable 2 in Supplement 1). Clinical benefit was deemed substantially more probable than not (posterior probability of an OR >1 above 80%) in risk groups 1 through 6. A similar pattern was observed for hospital survival, although the posterior probability of benefit from heparin was lower for hospital survival vs organ support–free days.

^aPosterior probability of an OR greater than 1.