Table 4.
Performance measure | Apparent | Bootstrap mean (95% CI) | Validated mean (95% CI) | Optimism mean (95% CI) | Optimism-corrected mean (95% CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall | |||||
Nagelkerke’s R2 | 0.315 | 0.318 (0.210–0.427) | 0.304 (0.274–0.334) | 0.014 (−0.096–0.124) | 0.301 (0.191–0.411) |
Scaled Brier score | 0.242 | 0.245 (0.161–0.329) | 0.235 (0.221–0.250) | 0.010 (−0.071–0.091) | 0.232 (0.150–0.313) |
Discrimination | |||||
AUC | 0.785 | 0.787 (0.737–0.836) | 0.785 (0.777–0.792) | 0.002 (−0.047–0.052) | 0.783 (0.733–0.832) |
Discrimination slope | 0.237 | 0.242 (0.164–0.321) | 0.238 (0.199–0.277) | 0.004 (−0.040–0.048) | 0.233 (0.189–0.277) |
Calibration | |||||
Hosmer-Lemeshow test | χ2 = 12.01 (p = 0.21) |
AUC = area under the receiver operator curve; CI = confidence interval.