Table 4.

Calibration tables for all models in mental health specialty and general medical samples with percentiles defined on training dataset and applied to validation dataset.

	OP		LR		RF		ANN		Full ensemble
Percentile	Avg $\widehat{p}$	Obs rate	Avg $\widehat{p}$	Obs rate	Avg $\widehat{p}$	Obs rate	Avg $\widehat{p}$	Obs rate	Avg $\widehat{p}$	Obs rate
30-day suicide attempt (fatal and nonfatal) prediction models, mental health specialty
0–50%	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.03
50–75%	0.15	0.13	0.14	0.12	0.16	0.14	0.15	0.13	0.15	0.12
75–90%	0.34	0.38	0.31	0.34	0.37	0.39	0.38	0.38	0.35	0.37
90–95%	0.73	0.80	0.65	0.71	0.74	0.71	0.82	0.84	0.73	0.74
95–99%	1.93	1.84	1.57	1.69	1.69	1.66	1.65	1.68	1.61	1.72
99–100%	7.69	4.99	8.78	4.95	5.19	5.32	5.87	5.62	6.41	5.49
30-day suicide attempt (fatal and nonfatal) prediction models, general medical
0–50%	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
50–75%	0.07	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.09	0.07	0.09	0.07	0.09	0.07
75–90%	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.15	0.20	0.18	0.21	0.15	0.19	0.16
90–95%	0.35	0.41	0.31	0.33	0.37	0.39	0.42	0.37	0.37	0.36
95–99%	0.87	0.90	0.72	0.75	0.74	0.76	0.99	0.83	0.82	0.82
99–100%	4.62	3.43	4.81	3.28	3.28	3.30	4.59	3.75	4.05	3.53
90-day suicide attempt (fatal and nonfatal) prediction models, mental health specialty
0–50%	0.13	0.10	0.13	0.10	0.11	0.11	0.07	0.09	0.12	0.09
50–75%	0.36	0.35	0.35	0.32	0.39	0.34	0.28	0.36	0.35	0.33
75–90%	0.84	0.95	0.76	0.84	0.89	0.93	0.74	0.93	0.80	0.92
90–95%	1.82	1.96	1.58	1.93	1.75	1.86	1.60	1.96	1.64	1.77
95–99%	4.56	4.27	3.74	3.98	3.83	3.90	3.22	4.22	3.53	4.25
99–100%	14.94	10.44	16.02	10.37	10.91	11.09	11.58	11.29	12.30	11.13
90-day suicide attempt (fatal and nonfatal) prediction models, general medical
0–50%	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.08	0.06
50–75%	0.16	0.16	0.18	0.17	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.15	0.18	0.16
75–90%	0.36	0.37	0.37	0.38	0.44	0.42	0.32	0.36	0.38	0.38
90–95%	0.79	0.97	0.73	0.89	0.85	0.90	0.66	0.82	0.75	0.86
95–99%	1.92	2.09	1.66	2.13	1.73	1.93	1.56	2.17	1.63	2.13
99–100%	8.56	6.96	8.83	6.85	6.67	6.49	8.29	7.26	7.57	7.17
90-day suicide death prediction models, mental health specialty
0–50%	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
50–75%	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02
75–90%	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.03
90–95%	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.05	0.07	0.06	0.08
95–99%	0.15	0.14	0.15	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.14	0.14	0.13	0.15
99–100%	0.64	0.35	0.71	0.28	0.25	0.25	0.70	0.21	0.47	0.30
90-day suicide death prediction models, general medical
0–50%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
50–75%	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
75–90%	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02
90–95%	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.04
95–99%	0.10	0.08	0.09	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.17	0.08	0.10	0.07
99–100%	0.43	0.23	0.71	0.20	0.19	0.11	0.96	0.21	0.56	0.25

OP original parsimonious, LR logistic regression with lasso variable selection, RF random forest, ANN artificial neural network, Avg $\widehat{p}$ the average predicted risk score in the subgroup, Obs rate observed outcome rate in the subgroup.