Table 5.

Performance indicators of Model(1) in presence of variation of α according to age at diagnosis

Scenario	bα	Range		AB						SD						CVR
		α40	α75	α	π60	λ	γ	β	δ	α	π60	λ	γ	β	δ	α	π60	λ	γ	β	δ
BREASTa	−0.02	1.65	0.95	− 0.271	− 0.083	− 0.017	− 0.038	− 0.040	−0.043	0.102	0.059	0.011	0.043	0.251	0.175	24%	75%	59%	82%	88%	90%
	−0.01	1.43	1.08	−0.129	− 0.037	− 0.008	− 0.017	0.070	− 0.104	0.098	0.047	0.011	0.045	0.210	0.163	72%	93%	85%	92%	89%	89%
	−0.005	1.31	1.14	−0.065	− 0.020	− 0.004	− 0.008	0.109	− 0.129	0.095	0.042	0.011	0.045	0.192	0.155	90%	95%	92%	94%	86%	86%
	0.001	1.18	1.21	0.012	0.000	0.001	0.004	0.001	−0.008	0.090	0.035	0.010	0.045	0.172	0.138	93%	93%	96%	95%	93%	94%
	0.002	1.16	1.23	0.025	0.003	0.002	0.006	0.008	−0.013	0.089	0.034	0.010	0.045	0.169	0.137	93%	92%	96%	95%	94%	94%
	0.005	1.09	1.26	0.061	0.011	0.004	0.011	0.028	−0.026	0.088	0.032	0.010	0.045	0.163	0.134	89%	89%	95%	95%	93%	94%
	0.01	0.98	1.33	0.120	0.023	0.007	0.020	0.058	−0.047	0.085	0.029	0.010	0.046	0.152	0.130	72%	81%	92%	94%	92%	94%
LUNGb	−0.08	3.80	1.00	−0.501	0.000	−0.013	− 0.008	0.030	− 0.006	0.174	0.004	0.013	0.015	0.064	0.023	20%	95%	84%	91%	93%	94%
	−0.04	2.90	1.50	−0.239	0.002	−0.011	− 0.004	0.017	− 0.001	0.192	0.004	0.014	0.015	0.065	0.023	75%	94%	87%	93%	94%	94%
	−0.02	2.45	1.75	−0.118	0.002	−0.010	− 0.002	0.010	0.001	0.199	0.004	0.014	0.015	0.065	0.023	90%	93%	89%	94%	95%	95%
	0.01	1.78	2.13	0.046	0.003	−0.009	0.000	0.000	0.004	0.208	0.004	0.014	0.015	0.065	0.023	97%	91%	89%	95%	95%	95%
	0.02	1.55	2.25	0.098	0.003	−0.008	0.001	−0.004	0.005	0.209	0.004	0.014	0.015	0.065	0.023	95%	92%	90%	95%	95%	95%
	0.04	1.10	2.50	0.194	0.003	−0.007	0.002	−0.012	0.007	0.218	0.004	0.014	0.015	0.066	0.023	88%	91%	91%	95%	94%	94%
	0.05	0.88	2.63	0.238	0.003	−0.007	0.003	− 0.016	0.008	0.221	0.004	0.014	0.015	0.066	0.023	84%	90%	91%	94%	94%	93%

Absolute Bias (AB) = Mean(estimates - true value); Standard Deviation (SD) = standard deviation over the set of 1000 estimates; Coverage (CVR) = the proportion of the time that the estimated 95% confidence intervals contained the true value

Estimated over 1000 simulation runs; Sample size 10,000; follow-up 15 years

^aTrue values: α = 1.2, π₆₀ = 0.7, λ = 0.1, γ = 1.1, β = − 0.15 and δ = 0

^bTrue values: α = 2, π₆₀ = 0.1, λ = 0.9, γ = 0.8, β = − 0.75 and δ = − 0.3