Figure 3. Demography drives susceptibility differences, with magnitude determined by vaccine effectiveness and differences by age group determined by waning.

We illustrate susceptibility profiles for countries with varying vaccination cessation dates and reported coverages. Vaccine effectiveness values ranging from 30 to 90% are shown, which overlap with reported estimates in the literature for monkeypox, Variola major, and Variola minor (see Figure S31), under overall population waning. We additionally illustrate an individual-level waning scenario with 1·4% per year since time of vaccination, assuming all eligible individuals were vaccinated by 5 years of age or in 1980, whichever is earlier.