Table 2.
Adjusted predicted probabilities of health condition diagnoses stratified by inferred gender among age-entitled transgender and cisgender Medicare beneficiaries, 2008-2017.
| TRANSGENDER | CISGENDER | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFN N=4,198 | TMN N=2,762 | Male N=1,294,690 | Female N=1,666,946 | |||||
| % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | |
| CANCER | ||||||||
| Breast | 0.4 | 0.2-0.5 | 7.5 | 6.8-8.4 | 0.1 | 0.1-0.1 | 6.2 | 6.1-6.3 |
| Colorectal | 3.6 | 3.1-4.1 | 3.1 | 2.6-3.6 | 2.7 | 2.6-2.8 | 2.1 | 2.0-2.1 |
| Endometrial | — | — | 1.7 | 1.4-2.1 | — | — | 1.1 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Lung | 2.5 | 2.1-2.9 | 2.7 | 2.3-3.3 | 2.3 | 2.2-2.4 | 1.7 | 1.6-1.7 |
| Prostate | 11.2 | 10.4-12.1 | — | — | 10.1 | 9.9-10.3 | — | — |
| HEART, LUNG, & KIDNEY CONDITIONS | ||||||||
| Asthma | 13.1 | 12.1-14.0 | 17.2 | 16.0-18.5 | 8.2 | 8.1-8.3 | 11.5 | 11.4-11.7 |
| Cardiac Arrhythmia | 14.5 | 13.6-15.5 | 12.0 | 11.1-13.1 | 11.7 | 11.6-11.9 | 8.0 | 7.9-8.1 |
| Chronic Kidney Disease | 45.9 | 44.3-47.6 | 38.3 | 36.4-40.3 | 32.5 | 32.3-32.8 | 24.4 | 24.3-24.6 |
| Congestive Heart Failure | 33.7 | 32.2-35.3 | 32.7 | 30.9-34.6 | 24.6 | 24.4-24.8 | 20.3 | 20.1-20.5 |
| COPD | 28.7 | 27.3-30.1 | 27.5 | 25.9-29.2 | 20.6 | 20.4-20.7 | 17.2 | 17.0-17.3 |
| Coronary Artery Disease | 54.6 | 52.9-56.4 | 45.9 | 43.8-48.0 | 46.4 | 46.1-46.6 | 32.9 | 32.7-33.1 |
| Hyperlipemia | 77.1 | 75.4-78.6 | 71.6 | 69.3-73.8 | 67.7 | 67.3-67.8 | 65.4 | 65.2-65.6 |
| Hypertension | 85.2 | 84.0-86.3 | 82.6 | 80.8-84.3 | 78.1 | 77.9-78.2 | 75.7 | 75.5-75.9 |
| Stroke | 15.1 | 14.1-16.2 | 15.8 | 14.6-17.1 | 11.8 | 11.6-11.9 | 10.7 | 10.6-10.8 |
| INFECTIOUS DISEASES | ||||||||
| Hepatitis | 4.3 | 3.7-5.1 | 3.0 | 2.4-3.7 | 1.8 | 1.7-1.9 | 1.2 | 1.2-1.3 |
| HIV/AIDS | 0.9 | 0.6-1.2 | 0.1 | 0.0-0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2-0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1-0.1 |
| OTHER HEALTH CONDITIONS | ||||||||
| Arthritis | 47.3 | 45.5-49.1 | 64.0 | 61.7-66.3 | 36.0 | 35.8-36.2 | 46.8 | 46.5-47.0 |
| Diabetes | 46.7 | 45.1-48.3 | 40.7 | 38.8-42.6 | 40.3 | 40.1-40.5 | 34.3 | 34.1-34.5 |
| Osteoporosis | 6.2 | 5.7-6.9 | 28.8 | 27.2-30.6 | 3.7 | 3.6-3.7 | 23.2 | 22.9-23.4 |
| MENTAL HEALTH CONDITIONS | ||||||||
| Dementia | 20.2 | 19.0-21.5 | 21.3 | 19.8-22.9 | 12.3 | 12.2-12.5 | 13.6 | 13.4-13.8 |
| Depression | 35.9 | 34.4-37.4 | 42.4 | 40.5-44.3 | 16.3 | 16.1-16.4 | 25.5 | 25.3-25.7 |
| Schizophrenia | 7.0 | 6.3-7.7 | 6.2 | 5.5-7.0 | 3.2 | 3.1-3.3 | 3.6 | 3.5-3.6 |
| SUBSTANCE USE DISORDERS | ||||||||
| Alcohol | 6.3 | 5.7-7.0 | 2.9 | 2.4-3.5 | 4.1 | 4.0-4.2 | 1.4 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Drug | 3.7 | 3.2-4.2 | 4.1 | 3.5-4.7 | 1.7 | 1.7-1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6-1.7 |
| Tobacco | 11.3 | 10.5-12.1 | 9.1 | 8.2-10.0 | 8.7 | 8.5-8.8 | 5.8 | 5.7-5.9 |
TFN, Trans Feminine and Nonbinary; TMN, Trans Masculine and Nonbinary; 95% CI, Confidence Interval. COPD: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. This model adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, census region, and months of enrollment. Unclassified individuals were included in the model but not shown for clarity of presentation. For the within- and between-group gender comparisons, 94% were significant at p<0.05 and p<0.01; 91% were significant at p<0.001. There were no significant differences (p>0.05) between TFN and TMN people for: colorectal cancer, lung cancer, congestive heart failure, COPD, dementia, schizophrenia, and drug use disorder. There were no significant differences (p>0.05) between TFN and cisgender females for arthritis. There were no significant differences (p>0.05) between TFN and cisgender males for lung cancer. There were no significant differences (p>0.05) between TMN and cisgender males for: colorectal cancer, lung cancer, cardiac arrhythmia, coronary artery disease, diabetes, HIV/AIDS, and tobacco use disorder. See Supplemental Table 2 for the estimates and p-values for all comparisons.