Table 3.
Results of scenario analyses
| Scenario | ICER cost/QALY (¥ [US$a]) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NSQ aNSCLC | SQ aNSCLC | ||
| Base-case ICER | 190,919 (28,349) | 207,388 (30,794) | |
| 1 | CheckMate 078 derived utilities using an overall (not treatment-specific) approach that is histology-specific | 199,193 (29,578) | 215,589 (32,012) |
| 2 | Use of CheckMate 017 or CheckMate 057 overall histology-specific utilities | 208,822 (31,007) | 228,029 (33,859) |
| 3 | Alternative PFS and OS parametric curves: | ||
| OS nivolumab: generalised gamma (for NSQ), loglogistic for SQ | 181,806 (26,996) | 224,006 (33,262) | |
| OS docetaxel: 1-knot spline normal (for NSQ), loglogistic for SQ | 182,775 (27,140) | 198,957 (29,543) | |
| PFS nivolumab: 1-knot spline hazard (for NSQ), 2-knot hazard spline (for SQ) | 185,714 (27,576) | 211,432 (31,395) | |
| PFS docetaxel: Log normal (for NSQ), 2-knot hazard spline (for SQ) | 189,451 (28,131) | 207,480 (30,808) | |
| 4 | Reimbursement of nivolumab for the entire extrapolated treatment duration | 666,699 (98,996) | 682,151 (101,291) |
| 5 | 2-year maximum treatment duration for docetaxel | 193,006 (28,659) | 248,950 (36,966) |
| 6 | Disease management costs: | ||
| +50% | 195,240 (28,991) | 211,754 (31,443) | |
| −50% | 186,599 (27,708) | 203,022 (30,146) | |
| 7 | AE management costs: | ||
| +50% | 188,435 (27,980) | 205,386 (30,497) | |
| − 50% | 193,404 (28,718) | 209,390 (31,092) | |
AE adverse event, aNSCLC advanced non-small cell lung cancer, NSQ non-squamous cell carcinoma, OS overall survival, PFS progression-free survival, QALY quality-adjusted life-year, SQ squamous cell carcinoma
aConversion using exchange rate ¥1 = US$0.148487; May 3, 2019; www.xe.com