Table 1.

Decision model input parameters

Variable	Base Case Value	Distribution type, uncertainty	Reference
Probability of smoking cessation
Brief counseling alone	0.35	β, 0.32-0.37	3
Varenicline	0.51	β, 0.48-0.78	7, 20,26
Pharmacotherapy + intensive counseling	0.59	β, 0.39-0.89	9
Monetary incentives	0.52	β, 0.44-0.60	8,24
Risk of events in patients who quit smoking
Recurrent ischemic stroke	14.4%	β, 12.7%-16.0%	1,11
Myocardial infarction	3.5%	β, 2.6%-4.4%	1,11
Death	19.0%	β, 17.4%-20.6%	1,11
Recurrent stroke after MI	4.4%	β, 2.6% - 4.4%	28,31
MI after MI	13.8%	β, 6.3%-13.8%	28, 30
Death after MI	9.7%	β, 5.0%-17.0%	27
Risk of events in patients who continue smoking
Recurrent ischemic stroke	18.3%	β, 16.2%-20.4%	11
Myocardial infarction	4.3%	β, 3.2%-5.4%	11
Death	31.7%	β, 29.0%-34.4%	11
Recurrent stroke after MI	5.9%	β, 3.4%-5.9%	1, 28
MI after MI	20.8%	β, 9.5%-20.8%	29
Death after MI	15.4%	β, 8%-27%	27, 32
Discharge destination after stroke
Home	58.3%	β, 49.0%-58.0%	15
Skilled nursing facility	16.5%	β, 16.5%-19.9%	15
Rehabilitation facility	18.2%	β, 17.9%-18.3%	15
In-hospital death	6.5%	β, 6.1%-8.0%	15
mRS distribution after recurrent stroke
mRS 0	0.21	NA	16
mRS 1	0.23	NA	16
mRS 2	0.09	NA	16
mRS 3	0.09	NA	16
mRS 4	0.07	NA	16
mRS 5	0.06	NA	16
mRS 6	0.23	NA	16
Outcome QALYs
mRS 0	0.85	NA	17,18,19
mRS 1	0.80	NA	17,18,19
mRS 2	0.70	NA	17,18,19
mRS 3	0.51	NA	17,18,19
mRS 4	0.30	NA	17,18,19
mRS 5	0.15	NA	17,18,19
Myocardial infarction	0.84	NA	25
Death	0	NA	25

Abbreviations: mRS, modified rankin scale; MI, myocardial infarction; QALY, quality-adjusted life year