Table 1. Annual estimates of excess mortality in the United States (deaths from all causes, deaths involving Covid-19 and all other deaths), 2017 to 2021.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US deaths, all causes | |||||
| Annual number | 2,810,580 | 2,838,772 | 2,852,462 | 3,353,347 | 3,455,604 |
| Standardized number with 2021 population | 2,951,062 | 2,919,215 | 2,890,767 | 3,376,837 | 3,455,604 |
| Counterfactual standardized number with yearly European average rates | 2,485,445 | 2,468,694 | 2,408,098 | 2,624,849 | 2,563,113 |
| Standardized number of excess deaths | 465,617 | 450,521 | 482,668 | 751,988 | 892,491 |
| Percentage of counterfactual standardized number of excess deaths | 18.7% | 18.2% | 20.0% | 28.6% | 34.8% |
| US deaths involving Covid-19 | |||||
| Annual number | 385,666 | 463,199 | |||
| Standardized number with 2021 population | 394,852 | 463,199 | |||
| Counterfactual standardized number with yearly European average CCMR | 258,258 | 239,933 | |||
| Standardized number of excess deaths involving Covid-19 | 136,594 | 223,266 | |||
| Percentage of standardized number of excess deaths from all causes | 18.2% | 25.0% | |||
| US deaths not involving Covid-19 | |||||
| Standardized number of excess deaths not involving Covid-19 | 465,617 | 450,521 | 482,668 | 615,394 | 669,225 |
Notes: Author’s calculations from the Human Mortality Database, Short-Term Fluctuation Series (STFS), with population-weighted average of European countries as counterfactual. Standardized numbers hold the size of the US population in each sex and age group constant at its 2021 value. European average rates (and CCMR) refer to the population-weighted average of the age- and sex-specific death rates (and CCMR) for each of the five European countries. The CCMR refers to the Comparative Covid-19 Mortality Ratio.