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. 2023 Mar 30;23:190. doi: 10.1186/s12879-023-08106-1

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© The Author(s) 2023

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 2 — Goodness-of-fit and estimated effects of covariates included in the multivariable model on the reproduction number R (in percentage of variation). A Trajectory of R estimated by the full model for an average department (red) compared to mean R (black). B Effects of linear and categorical covariates. Of note, the effect shown for first-dose vaccine coverage and the proportion of VOC corresponds to a covariate value of 100% (i.e., reflecting a fully vaccinated population and maximum prevalence of variants). C Non-linear effect of temperature. D Non-linear effect of absolute humidity. E Estimated seasonality of COVID-19 based on average temperature and absolute humidity observed over 1981–2010 in metropolitan France, after adjusting for other covariates. For C, D and E, fitted lines and their 95% confidence intervals show the estimated percentage of variation in R with respect to a baseline set to the value at the trough of the corresponding curve for weather variables. For C and D, the range of the x-axis is determined by the 2.5–97.5th percentile of the weather variable distribution