Table S3. Results from sensitive analysis.
| Model | Cause of death | Rate ratio (95% confidence interval) | ||||||
|
Lag 0
(Exposure day) |
Lag 1 | Lag 2 | Lag 3 | Lag 4 | Lag 5 | Lag 6 | ||
| Notes: Model 1 and Model 2 have the same specifications as the main model, using three and six reference periods, respectively; Model 3 is a generalized linear model (GLM) to control year, population, temperature, relative humidity, and a fixed effect of county (rather than the random effect of county used in the main model). | ||||||||
| Model 1 (3 reference periods) |
All-cause | 1.07 (1.04, 1.11) |
1.02 (0.99, 1.05) |
0.99 (0.96, 1.03) |
1.03 (0.99, 1.06) |
0.96 (0.93, 0.99) |
1.04 (1.01, 1.07) |
1.00 (0.97, 1.03) |
| Non-accidental | 1.09 (1.05, 1.13) |
1.03 (0.99, 1.07) |
0.99 (0.95, 1.02) |
1.01 (0.98, 1.05) |
0.96 (0.93, 1.00) |
1.04 (1.00, 1.08) |
1.00 (0.97, 1.04) |
|
| Accidental | 0.90 (0.79, 1.01) |
0.93 (0.83, 1.05) |
1.05 (0.94, 1.17) |
1.15 (1.04, 1.28) |
0.90 (0.8, 1.02) |
1.04 (0.93, 1.16) |
0.96 (0.85, 1.07) |
|
| Circulatory disease | 1.14 (1.08, 1.20) |
1.06 (1.00, 1.12) |
0.99 (0.94, 1.05) |
1.02 (0.97, 1.08) |
1.00 (0.95, 1.06) |
1.02 (0.97, 1.08) |
1.01 (0.96, 1.07) |
|
| Respiratory disease | 1.13 (1.02, 1.24) |
0.99 (0.89, 1.09) |
0.95 (0.86, 1.05) |
1.05 (0.95, 1.16) |
0.96 (0.86, 1.06) |
1.06 (0.96, 1.18) |
0.97 (0.87, 1.08) |
|
| Model 2 (6 reference periods) |
All-cause | 1.06 (1.03, 1.10) |
1.02 (0.98, 1.05) |
0.99 (0.96, 1.02) |
1.02 (0.99, 1.06) |
0.95 (0.92, 0.99) |
1.04 (1.00, 1.07) |
1.00 (0.96, 1.03) |
| Non-accidental | 1.08 (1.04, 1.11) |
1.02 (0.99, 1.06) |
0.99 (0.95, 1.02) |
1.01 (0.98, 1.05) |
0.96 (0.93, 0.99) |
1.04 (1.00, 1.07) |
1.00 (0.97, 1.03) |
|
| Accidental | 0.90 (0.80, 1.02) |
0.94 (0.83, 1.05) |
1.05 (0.95, 1.17) |
1.16 (1.04, 1.28) |
0.91 (0.81, 1.02) |
1.04 (0.94, 1.16) |
0.96 (0.86, 1.07) |
|
| Circulatory disease | 1.13 (1.08, 1.19) |
1.06 (1.01, 1.12) |
1.00 (0.94, 1.05) |
1.02 (0.97, 1.08) |
1.00 (0.95, 1.06) |
1.02 (0.97, 1.08) |
1.01 (0.96, 1.07) |
|
| Respiratory disease | 1.11 (1.01, 1.22) |
0.97 (0.88, 1.08) |
0.94 (0.85, 1.04) |
1.04 (0.94, 1.15) |
0.95 (0.85, 1.05) |
1.05 (0.95, 1.16) |
0.96 (0.87, 1.06) |
|
| Model 3 (GLM with county) |
All-cause | 1.08 (1.03, 1.13) |
1.02 (0.98, 1.07) |
0.99 (0.95, 1.04) |
1.03 (0.98, 1.08) |
0.96 (0.92, 1.01) |
1.04 (1.00, 1.10) |
1.01 (0.96, 1.06) |
| Non-accidental | 1.09 (1.04, 1.15) |
1.03 (0.98, 1.08) |
0.98 (0.94, 1.03) |
1.01 (0.96, 1.06) |
0.97 (0.92, 1.02) |
1.04 (0.99, 1.10) |
1.01 (0.96, 1.06) |
|
| Accidental | 0.92 (0.81, 1.05) |
0.95 (0.84, 1.08) |
1.08 (0.96, 1.22) |
1.19 (1.06, 1.33) |
0.91 (0.80, 1.04) |
1.06 (0.94, 1.20) |
0.98 (0.86, 1.11) |
|
| Circulatory disease | 1.16 (1.09, 1.24) |
1.06 (0.99, 1.13) |
0.98 (0.91, 1.05) |
1.01 (0.95, 1.08) |
1.01 (0.94, 1.08) |
1.02 (0.95, 1.09) |
1.00 (0.94, 1.07) |
|
| Respiratory disease | 1.13 (1.01, 1.26) |
1.01 (0.90, 1.14) |
0.97 (0.86, 1.1) |
1.07 (0.95, 1.20) |
0.99 (0.88, 1.11) |
1.10 (0.98, 1.23) |
1.01 (0.90, 1.14) |
|