Table 3.
Estimated number of diet-related NCD deaths that could be averted or delayed by risk factor.
| By risk factor | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n (95% UI) | % | n (95% UI) | % | n (95% UI) | % | n (95% UI) | % | |
| Saturated fat | 59 (49, 70) | 1 | 76 (62, 90) | 1 | 95 (78, 113) | 4 | 495 (411, 587) | 6 |
| Sodium | 495 (211, 795) | 8 | 485 (210, 792) | 9 | 113 (47, 184) | 5 | 819 (348, 1,304) | 9 |
| Calories | 5,930 (5,415, 6,441) | 92 | 4,613 (4,233, 5,006) | 90 | 1,980 (1,815, 2,139) | 91 | 7,710 (7,043, 8,369) | 87 |
| Total deaths * | 6,442 (5,870, 7,020) | 100 | 5,151 (4,672, 5,610) | 100 | 2,183 (2,008, 2,361) | 100 | 8,907 (8,095, 9,667) | 100 |
Numbers of diet-related NCD deaths that could be averted or delayed were estimated using the PRIME model, 95% UI are based on 10,000 iterations of Monte Carlo analysis built in PRIME (67). *Total deaths averted or delayed represent less than the sum of the individual risk factors given that double counting has been accounted for in PRIME during the modeling process. Counterfactual scenario 1 and 2 were based on Taillie et al. (44). SCENARIO 1, overall changes: sodium (mg) –4.7%; sugars (g) –10.2%; saturated fat (g) –3.9%; and SCENARIO 2, disaggregated by foods: sodium (mg) –4.6%; sugars (g) –5.4%; saturated fat (g) –3.6%; and beverages: sodium (mg) –5.2%; sugars (g) –13.2%; saturated fat (g) –5.6%. Counterfactual scenario 3 was based on Acton et al. (40). SCENARIO 3, relative changes disaggregated by snack foods: sodium (mg) –6.3%; sugars (g) –0.1%; saturated fat (g) –6.5%; and beverages: sodium (mg) –5.5%; sugars (g) –8.7%; saturated fat (g) –19.5%. Counterfactual scenario 4 was based on Song, et al. (41). SCENARIO 4, overall changes: sodium (mg) –7.8%; sugars (g) –7.3%; saturated fat (g) –16.3%.