Population	Baseline Povertyc ‘000s (%) [95%CI]	Additional Povertyc ‘000s (% point change) [95%CI]	Baseline Common Mental Disorders ‘000s (%) [95%CI]	Additional/fewer Common Mental Disorders ‘000s (% of population) [95%CI]	Relative change Common Mental Disorders compared to baseline (%) [95%CI]
Scenario 1: Energy price cap risea No policy response	All	13,322 [13,120, 13,524] (20.3%) [20.0%, 20.6%]	4745 [4615, 4875] (7.2%) [7.0%, 7.4%]	14,077 [13,871, 14,283] (21.4%) [21.1%, 21.7%]	584 [537, 631] (0.9%) [0.8%, 1.0%]	4.1% [3.9%, 4.3%]
	Elderly	2223 [2140, 2306] (18.6%) [17.9%, 19.3%]	1148 [1085, 1211] (9.6%) [9.1%, 10.1%]	1526 [1455, 1597] (12.8%) [12.2%, 13.4%]	31 [21, 41] (0.3%) [0.2%, 0.4%]	2.0% [1.7%, 2.3%]
	Working age	7165 [7015, 7315] (18.0%) [17.6%, 18.4%]	2421 [2328, 2514] (6.1%) [5.9%, 6.3%]	8531 [8371, 8691] (21.4%) [21.0%, 21.8%]	109 [89, 1429] (0.3%) [0.2%, 0.4%]	1.3% [1.2%, 1.4%]
	Children	3934 [3830, 4038] (28.4%) [27.6%, 29.2%]	1176 [1112, 1240] (8.5%) [8.0%, 9.0%]	4020 [3915, 4125] (29.0%) [28.2%, 29.8%]	443 [402, 484] (3.2%) [2.9%, 3.5%]	11.0% [10.5%, 11.5%]
Scenario 2: Energy price cap risea + Targeted supportb	All	13,322 [13,120, 13,524] (20.3%) [20.0%, 20.6%]	2839 [2737, 3941] (4.3%) [4.2%, 4.5%]	14,077 [13,871, 14,283] (21.4%) [21.1%, 21.7%]	362 [326, 198] (0.6%) [0.5%, 0.7%]	2.6% [2.5%, 2.7%]
	Elderly	2223 [2140, 2306] (18.6%) [17.9%, 19.3%]	574 [528, 620] (4.8%) [4.4%, 5.2%]	1526 [1455, 1597] (12.8%) [12.2%, 13.4%]	15 [6, 24] (0.1%) [0.0%, 0.2%]	1.0% [0.8%, 1.2%]
	Working age	7165 [7015, 7315] (18.0%) [17.6%, 18.4%]	1528 [1453, 1603] (3.8%) [3.6%, 4.0%]	8531 [8371, 8691] (21.4%) [21.0%, 21.8%]	69 [54, 84] (0.2%) [0.2%, 0.2%]	0.8% [0.7%, 0.9%]
	Children	3934 [3830, 4038] (28.4%) [27.6%, 29.2%]	736 [684, 788] (5.3%) [4.9%, 5.7%]	4020 [3915, 4125] (29.0%) [28.2%, 29.8%]	278 [246, 310] (2.0%) [1.8%, 2.2%]	6.9% [6.5%, 7.3%]
Scenario 3: Energy price cap risea + Targeted supportb + £2500 maximum price guaranteed	All	13,322 [13,120, 13,524] (20.3%) [20.0%, 20.6%]	584 [537, 632] (0.9%) [0.8%, 1.0%]	14,077 [13,871, 14,283] (21.4%) [21.1%, 21.7%]	92 [70–114] (0.1%) [0.1%, 0.1%]	0.7% [0.6%, 0.8%]
	Elderly	2223 [2140, 2306] (18.6%) [17.9%, 19.3%]	−22 [-31, −13] (−0.2%) [-0.3%, −0.1%]	1526 [1455, 1597] (12.8%) [12.2%, 13.4%]	−1 [-1, −1] (0.0%)	0.0% [0%, 0%]
	Working age	7165 [7015, 7315] (18.0%) [17.6%, 18.4%]	409 [370, 448] (1.0%) [0.9%, 1.1%)	8531 [8371, 8691] (21.4%) [21.0%, 21.8%]	18 [18, 18] (0.0%)	0.2% [0.2%, 0.2%]
	Children	3934 [3830, 4038] (28.4%) [27.6%, 29.2%]	197 [170, 224] (1.4%) [1.21%, 1.59%]	4020 [3915, 4125] (29.0%) [28.2%, 29.8%]	74 [57, 91] (0.5%) [0.4%, 0.6%]	1.8% [1.6%, 2.0%]

Notes:

Population size is constant across scenarios: total = 65.6 m; elderly = 11.9 m; working age adults = 39.8 m; children = 13.9 m.⁵⁹

Baseline scenario uses domestic energy costs in February 2022 before energy price cap increases.⁶⁰

^aEnergy price cap rise of £693 (54%) on 1st April 2022 and a further £1573 (80%) on 1st October.⁶¹

^bPlanned targeted support outlined by UK Government prior to the 8th September 2022: a universal £400 cost-of-living payment, a £650 cost-of-living payment to those on means-tested benefits, a £300 addition to the pensioner winter fuel payment, and a £150 disability cost-of-living payment.⁶²

^cPoverty defined as a level of equivalised household disposable income after housing costs below 60% of the median equivalised household disposable income after housing costs in the UK in the baseline scenario.

^d£2500 price guarantee ceiling announced 8th September 2022.⁶³