Table 5.
Multi-determinant linear mixed models for standardized maximum increase of cases (average on 3 days, log-transformed) for the whole sample (repeated measurements), the study periods separately (1st Wave and summer) and the geographic position (North vs Centre-South) (repeated measurements). Results are reported as estimate bZ, confidence interval and p value. All variables were standardized. Models with difference in AIC or BIC <2 were reported as equivalent.
|
Multi-determinant models: y = Z Ln (3d-MaxΔ+) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (N = 112, Subj = 56) | ||||||
| AIC = 213.6; BIC = 243.5 | ||||||
| bZ | CI 95% | p-value | ||||
| Nr inhabitants (K) | 0.502 | (0.374; 0.629) | <0.001 | |||
| NO2 (μg/m3) | 0.169 | (0.043; 0.295) | 0.009 | |||
| O3 (μg/m3) | −0.196 | (-0.335; −0.057) | 0.006 | |||
| T (°C) | −0.259 | (-0.463; −0.056) | 0.013 | |||
| IR (MJ/m2) | −0.135 | (-0.345; 0.075) | 0.206 | |||
| IR * + 1DS(T) | 0.076 | (-0.189; 0.341) | 0.569 | |||
| IR* -1DS(T) | −0.345 | (-0.564;-0.126) | 0.002 | |||
| 1st wave (N = Subj = 56) | ||||||
| AIC = 88.3; BIC = 114.6 | AIC = 89.3; BIC = 113.6 | |||||
| bZ | CI 95% | p-value | bZ | CI 95% | p-value | |
| Nr inhabitants (K) | 0.279 | (0.149; 0.408) | <0.001 | 0.267 | (0134; 0.400) | <0.001 |
| Family size | −0.196 | (-0.333; −0.059) | 0.006 | −0.269 | (-0.401;-0.136) | <0.001 |
| NO2 (μg/m3) | 0.241 | (0.124; 0.358) | <0.001 | 0.429 | (0.231; 0.626) | <0.001 |
| O3 (μg/m3) | −0.329 | (-0.478; −0.180) | <0.001 | −0.410 | (-0.564; 0.256) | <0.001 |
| T (°C) | −1.173 | (-1.829; −0.518) | 0.001 | −1.213 | (-1.869;-0.556) | <0.001 |
| T * + 1DS (rH) | −1.852 | (-2.597;-1.107) | <0.001 | – | – | – |
| T * -1DS (rH) | −0.495 | (-1.324; 0.334) | 0.237 | – | – | – |
| IR (MJ/m2) | −1.189 | (-1.804;-0.574) | <0.001 | −0.763 | (-1.406;-0.133) | 0.021 |
| IR * + 1DS(T) | −2.122 | (-3.259;-0.984) | <0.001 | −1.461 | (-2.649; −0.273) | 0.017 |
| IR* -1DS(T) | −0.256 | (-0.487;-0.024) | 0.031 | −0.065 | (-0.302; 0.173) | 0.588 |
| IR *+1DS(NO2) | −0.468 | (-1.211; 0.276) | 0.213 | |||
| IR * -1DS(NO2) | −1.058 | (-1.673;-0.442) | 0.001 | |||
| WS (m/s) | −0.142 | (-0.269;-0.015) | 0.029 | −0.138 | (-0.269;-0.006) | 0.040 |
| rH (%) | −0.730 | (-1.188;-0.272) | 0.002 | – | – | – |
| Summer (N = Subj = 57) | ||||||
| AIC = 108.3; BIC = 122.6 | ||||||
| bZ | CI 95% | p-value | ||||
| Nr inhabitants (K) | 0.600 | (0.451; 0.750) | <0.001 | |||
| O3 (μg/m3) | 0.280 | (-0.034; 0.594) | 0.079 | |||
| IR (MJ/m2) | −0.032 | (-0.294; 0.229) | 0.805 | |||
| IR * + 1DS(O3) | −0.416 | (-0.782;-0.050) | 0.027 | |||
| IR * -1DS(O3) | 0.351 | (-0.072; 0.775) | 0.102 | |||
| North (N = 46; Subj = 23) | ||||||
| AIC = 71.1; BIC = 92.5 | AIC = 72.2; BIC = 93.6 | |||||
| bZ | CI 95% | p-value | bZ | CI 95% | p-value | |
| Nr inhabitants(K) | 0.401 | (0.189; 0.613) | 0.001 | 0.461 | (0.245; 0.678) | <0.001 |
| PM2.5 (μg/m3) | 0.372 | (0.242; 0.501) | <0.001 | 0.343 | (0.196; 0.489) | <0.001 |
| NO2 (μg/m3) | 0.411 | (0.072; 0.749) | 0.019 | 0.386 | (0.196; 0.489) | 0.023 |
| O3 (μg/m3) | −0.498 | (-0.669;-0.326) | <0.001 | −0.325 | (-0471;-0.178) | <0.001 |
| IR (MJ/m2) | −0.159 | (0.334; 0.015) | 0.072 | −0.152 | (-0.346;-0.041) | 0.119 |
| IR *+1DS(NO2) | 0.355 | (-0.042; 0.752) | 0.078 | 0.335 | (-0.068; 0.739) | 0.101 |
| IR * -1DS(NO2) | −0.674 | (-0.851;-0.497) | <0.001 | −0.640 | (-0.837; −0.443) | <0.001 |
| IR * + 1DS(O3) | −0.301 | (-0.483;-0.118) | 0.002 | – | – | – |
| IR * -1DS(O3) | −0.018 | (-0.235; 0.198) | 0.862 | – | – | – |
| Mobility (%) | – | – | – | −0.166 | (-0.328; −0.003) | 0.046 |
| Centre-South (N = 68; Subj = 34) | ||||||
| AIC = 138.3; BIC = 156.1 | AIC = 137.4; BIC = 166.4 | |||||
| bZ | CI 95% | p-value | bZ | CI 95% | p-value | |
| Nr inhabitants (K) | 0.457 | (0.289;0.625) | <0.001 | 0.441 | (0.284; 0.597) | <0.001 |
| NO2 (μg/m3) | 0.172 | (0.401;0.323) | 0.027 | 0.197 | (0.044;0.349) | 0.013 |
| O3 (μg/m3) | - | - | - | −0.198 | (-0.383; -0.014) | 0.036 |
| T (°C) | −0.265 | (-0.020; -0.323) | <0.001 | - | - | - |
| IR (MJ/m2) | - | - | - | −0.221 | (-0.399;-0.044) | 0.016 |