Table 3.

Estimated expected value (median) and [range] of poliovirus cases in 100 stochastic iterations for 2016–2026 for the scenarios modeled.

Scenario	IPV in all RI		No IPV prerequisite
Estimated expected global cVDPV2 cases (median) [range]
mOPV2, current oSIA	13,981 (9,857)	[1,073–47,975]	62,913 (59,930)	[3,527–141,974]
nOPV2 no reversion, current oSIA	5,297 (2,464)	[433–34,857]	13,256 (7,407)	[766–103,320]
nOPV2 some reversion, current oSIA	15,000 (12,340)	[1,667–60,793]	65,409 (62,659)	[4,417–158,581]
mOPV2, recommended oSIA	354 (102)	[102–4,226]	3,541 (670)	[255–33,378]
nOPV2 no reversion, recommended oSIA	136 (98)	[98–1,525]	369 (254)	[254–2,537]
nOPV2 some reversion, recommended oSIA	295 (103)	[103–4,979]	4,447 (661)	[255–31,885]
Estimated expected global total * type 2 cases (median) [range]
mOPV2, current oSIA	14,285 (10,123)	[1,125–48,948]	64,954 (61,906)	[3,678–143,964]
nOPV2 no reversion, current oSIA	5,396 (2,508)	[488–34,964]	13,441 (7,557)	[872–103,577]
nOPV2 some reversion, current oSIA	15,186 (12,445)	[1,710–61,521]	66,332 (63,722)	[4,513–160,006]
mOPV2, recommended oSIA	432 (136)	[136–4,530]	4,164 (1,117)	[342–34,510]
nOPV2 no reversion, recommended oSIA	188 (129)	[129–1,595]	468 (348)	[306–2,796]
nOPV2 some reversion, recommended oSIA	357 (136)	[136–5,110]	4,782 (841)	[332–32,845]

^*Global total cases include all type 2 cases, including vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) and type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) cases that do not meet the laboratory criteria for cVDPV2.

cVDPV2, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2; mOPV2, monovalent Sabin oral poliovirus vaccine type 2; nOPV2, novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2; some reversion, some reversion to wild-type phenotype; no reversion, no reversion to wild-type phenotype; oSIA, outbreak response supplemental immunization activity; RI, routine immunizations.