Table 5.

Estimated expected value (median) and [range] of vaccine use for outbreak response in 100 stochastic iterations for 2016–2026 for the scenarios modeled.

Scenario	Estimated expected millions of oSIA doses used (median) [range]
	bOPV		mOPV2		nOPV2		IPV
IPV in all RI:
mOPV2, current oSIA	46 (13)	[13–139]	576 (518)	[158–1,505]	NA		0.4 (0)	[0–27]
nOPV2 no reversion, current oSIA	40 (13)	[13–190]	NA		358 (278)	[126–1,028]	0.1 (0)	[0–6]
nOPV2 some reversion, current oSIA	46 (13)	[13–138]	NA		585 (561)	[162–1,541]	0.2 (0)	[0–7]
mOPV2, recommended oSIA	55 (54)	[54–123]	284 (128)	[128–1,667]	NA		0.4 (0)	[0–15]
nOPV2 no reversion, recommended oSIA	54 (54)	[54–58]	NA		141 (127)	[127–537]	0.3 (0)	[0–14]
nOPV2 some reversion, recommended oSIA	55 (54)	[54–122]	NA		264 (128)	[128–1,496]	0.4 (0)	[0–14]
No IPV prerequisite:
mOPV2, current oSIA	68 (63)	[13–342]	1,641 (1,619)	[681–2,840]	NA		1.1 (0)	[0–34]
nOPV2 no reversion, current oSIA	72 (96)	[13–197]	NA		490 (413)	[177–1,923]	0.5 (0)	[0–26]
nOPV2 some reversion, current oSIA	82 (90)	[13–342]	NA		1,562 (1,537)	[667–2,996]	0.9 (0)	[0–34]
mOPV2, recommended oSIA	56 (54)	[54–183]	1,856 (1,495)	[317–5,218]	NA		0.5 (0)	[0–15]
nOPV2 no reversion, recommended oSIA	54 (54)	[54]	NA		198 (176)	[176–641]	0.3 (0)	[0–14]
nOPV2 some reversion, recommended oSIA	55 (54)	[54–89]	NA		1,754 (1,409)	[262–4,574]	0.4 (0)	[0–14]

IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; bOPV2, bivalent Sabin oral poliovirus vaccine; mOPV2, monovalent Sabin oral poliovirus vaccine type 2; nOPV2, novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2; oSIA, outbreak response supplemental immunization activity; RI, routine immunizations.