Table 2.
Summary impacts of a modeled Ebola virus outbreak entering the Virunga Massif population of mountain gorillas via one exposed gorilla in the DRC-1 group, under various vaccination strategies. Preemptive = gorillas vaccinated prior to arrival of the first Ebola case; Week 3 = vaccinations administered 3 weeks after the first case becomes infectious; Week 6 = vaccinations administered 6 weeks after the first Infectious individual. # Gorillas Vaccinated was either applied randomly to a percent of the habituated gorillas or applied to 1 or 4 gorillas in each of the 33 habituated groups. #V is the number that were effectively vaccinated (resulting in protective immunity), i.e., not including the 3% for which the vaccine was not effective; other columns as in Table 1. Presented as mean (SD); SD = standard deviation across 500 iterations.
| Vaccination scenario | #Gorillas vaccinated | Cumulative prevalence | Duration | #S | #R | #V | Survival rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preemptive | Percent | ||||||
| 0 | 0.869 (0.074) | 185 (32) | 79 (45) | 33 (6) | 0 | 0.185 (0.070) | |
| 10 | 0.789 (0.076) | 189 (36) | 76 (46) | 30 (6) | 52 (6) | 0.261 (0.072) | |
| 25 | 0.666 (0.083) | 195 (38) | 73 (50) | 25 (6) | 130 (10) | 0.376 (0.078) | |
| 50 | 0.437 (0.108) | 201 (53) | 83 (63) | 17 (6) | 259 (12) | 0.591 (0.101) | |
| Per group | |||||||
| 1 | 0.811 (0.072) | 188 (36) | 82 (44) | 31 (6) | 33 (1) | 0.240 (0.068) | |
| 4 | 0.633 (0.112) | 189 (44) | 93 (68) | 24 (6) | 130 (2) | 0.408 (0.105) | |
| Week 3 | Percent | ||||||
| 10 | 0.796 (0.059) | 187 (32) | 74 (35) | 31(6) | 50 (7) | 0.254 (0.056) | |
| 25 | 0.675 (0.063) | 192 (35) | 72 (37) | 26 (5) | 125 (10) | 0.368 (0.060) | |
| 50 | 0.471 (0.061) | 197 (42) | 70 (34) | 18 (5) | 251 (13) | 0.558 (0.057) | |
| Per group | |||||||
| 1 | 0.811 (0.081) | 186 (36) | 83 (49) | 32 (6) | 32 (1) | 0.241 (0.077) | |
| 4 | 0.654 (0.064) | 185 (34) | 86 (38) | 25 (6) | 124 (3) | 0.388 (0.060) | |
| Week 6 | Percent | ||||||
| 10 | 0.805 (0.059) | 188 (33) | 75 (35) | 31 (6) | 43 (8) | 0.245 (0.057) | |
| 25 | 0.708 (0.060) | 190 (36) | 70 (33) | 27 (6) | 108 (15) | 0.337 (0.056) | |
| 50 | 0.538 (0.062) | 191 (39) | 64 (26) | 20 (5) | 216 (25) | 0.495 (0.058) | |
| Per group | |||||||
| 1 | 0.817 (0.076) | 182 (31) | 84 (46) | 31 (6) | 27 (3) | 0.235 (0.072) | |
| 4 | 0.690 (0.066) | 182 (34) | 80 (39) | 26 (6) | 108 (9) | 0.353 (0.062) |