Table 2.
Multilevel model—ED outcome results: ED duration, hospital admission from ED and ED reattendance within 30 days (2012–2017)
| Dep var | (1) | (2) | (3) |
| ED duration (>4 hours) | Hospital admission from ED | 30-day reattendance | |
| Logit—OR | Logit—OR | Logit—OR | |
| Age 75–80 (reference cat) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Age 80–85 | 1.061*** (1.048 to 1.073) | 1.115*** (1.102 to 1.128) | 1.028*** (1.015 to 1.042) |
| Age 85–90 | 1.107*** (1.093 to 1.121) | 1.222*** (1.207 to 1.237) | 1.088*** (1.073 to 1.104) |
| Age 90–95 | 1.135*** (1.118 to 1.153) | 1.285*** (1.266 to 1.305) | 1.107*** (1.089 to 1.126) |
| Age 95+ | 1.125*** (1.098 to 1.153) | 1.257*** (1.226 to 1.288) | 1.089*** (1.059 to 1.119) |
| Female (reference cat) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Male | 1.008* (0.999 to 1.017) | 1.099*** (1.089 to 1.109) | 1.116***(1.105 to 1.128) |
| IMD1—most deprived (reference cat) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| IMD2 | 0.986 (0.969 to 1.004) | 0.994 (0.977 to 1.012) | 0.967*** (0.949 to 0.986) |
| IMD3 | 0.976*** (0.959 to 0.993) | 1.007 (0.990 to 1.025) | 0.963*** (0.945 to 0.982) |
| IMD4 | 0.984* (0.965 to 1.002) | 1.003 (0.984 to 1.022) | 0.934*** (0.914 to 0.954) |
| IMD5 | 0.978** (0.960 to 0.996) | 0.995 (0.977 to 1.014) | 0.915*** (0.896 to 0.934) |
| IMD6 | 0.958*** (0.941 to 0.975) | 0.970*** (0.952 to 0.987) | 0.900*** (0.882 to 0.919) |
| IMD7 | 0.951*** (0.934 to 0.969) | 0.978** (0.960 to 0.995) | 0.880*** (0.862 to 0.898) |
| IMD8 | 0.944*** (0.926 to 0.962) | 0.946*** (0.929 to 0.964) | 0.874*** (0.856 to 0.893) |
| IMD9 | 0.951*** (0.933 to 0.970) | 0.945*** (0.927 to 0.963) | 0.868*** (0.849 to 0.887) |
| IMD10—least deprived | 0.934*** (0.915 to 0.954) | 0.917*** (0.897 to 0.936) | 0.863*** (0.842 to 0.884) |
| No care home (reference cat) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Care home | 1.077*** (1.064 to 1.090) | 0.856*** (0.846 to 0.867) | 1.014** (1.001 to 1.028) |
| Road travel distance (min) | 1.001*** (1.001 to 1.002) | 1.005*** (1.005 to 1.006) | 0.993*** (0.992 to 0.994) |
| Number of previous ED attendances=0 (reference cat) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Number of previous ED attendances=1 | 1.037*** (1.025 to 1.049) | 1.091*** (1.079 to 1.104) | 1.434*** (1.415 to 1.453) |
| Number of previous ED attendances=2 | 1.060*** (1.045 to 1.076) | 1.132*** (1.116 to 1.148) | 1.834*** (1.806 to 1.863) |
| Number of previous ED attendances=3+ | 1.069*** (1.056 to 1.083) | 1.104*** (1.090 to 1.118) | 3.126*** (3.085 to 3.169) |
| Length NHS111 call (min) | 0.999*** (0.998 to 0.999) | 0.992*** (0.992 to 0.993) | 0.999*** (0.998 to 0.999) |
| NHS111 calls per day (≤1) (reference cat) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| NHS111 calls per day (>1) | 1.071** (1.010 to 1.135) | 0.999 (0.939 to 1.064) | 1.081** (1.012 to 1.155) |
| Ambulance calls per day (≤1) (reference cat) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ambulance calls per day (>1) | 1.110*** (1.079 to 1.142) | 1.196*** (1.160 to 1.234) | 1.107*** (1.071 to 1.143) |
| No call to 999 (reference cat) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CH designation—less urgent | 1.178*** (1.155 to 1.202) | 1.850*** (1.813 to 1.888) | 1.045*** (1.022 to 1.069) |
| CH designation—urgent | 1.367*** (1.334 to 1.400) | 2.128*** (2.074 to 2.183) | 1.076*** (1.046 to 1.107) |
| CH designation—emergency | 1.256*** (1.233 to 1.279) | 2.403*** (2.357 to 2.449) | 1.054*** (1.033 to 1.077) |
| CH designation—life-threatening | 1.365*** (1.281 to 1.453) | 2.422*** (2.261 to 2.594) | 0.972 (0.899 to 1.052) |
| Time ambulance on scene (min) | 1.003*** (1.002 to 1.003) | 1.006*** (1.005 to 1.006) | 1.001** (1.0001 to 1.001) |
| Time from ambulance call to ED arrival (min) | 1.002*** (1.001 to 1.002) | 0.999*** (0.999 to 0.999) | 1.0004*** (1.0002 to 1.001) |
| No out of hours (reference cat) | 1 | ||
| Out of hours (=1 yes) | 1.329*** (1.315 to 1.344) | 1.194*** (1.181 to 1.208) | 1.067*** (1.054 to 1.081) |
| Site size in 1000 | 1.122*** (1.115 to 1.129) | 0.781*** (0.777 to 0.786) | 1.014*** (1.008 to 1.020) |
| Number of attendances per consultant | 0.999*** (0.999 to 0.999) | 1.0001*** (1.0001 to 1.0001) | 1.000* (1.000 to 1.00004) |
| Var(j) | 0.821*** (0.281 to 1.362) | 2.260*** (0.784 to 3.736) | 0.009*** (0.003 to 0.014) |
| N | 990 172 | 990 645 | 990 229 |
| Sites | 18 | 18 | 18 |
Significance levels: ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. ORs reported and 95% CIs in parentheses. Variation in the random effects across sites is captured by Var(j) reported as mean of the variance with the 95% CIs in parentheses. Model 3 (30-day reattendance) includes death as a covariate.
CH, call handler; IMD, Index of Multiple Deprivation; N, total observations.