Table 3. Association Between WC Change Categories and Risk of Mortality in Men and Womena.
| Type of mortality | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Within 5% of WC change | Increase in WC | Decrease in WC | |||
| 5%-10% | >10% | 5%-10% | >10% | ||
| All-cause mortality | |||||
| Men | |||||
| Events, No./total No. (%) | 463/5136 (9.0) | 77/824 (9.3) | 21/242 (8.7) | 98/904 (10.8) | 45/224 (20.1) |
| Risk per 10 000 person-years | 139 | 142 | 135 | 168 | 324 |
| Model 1 | 1 [Reference] | 1.07 (0.85-1.36) | 0.96 (0.62-1.48) | 1.15 (0.93-1.44) | 2.24 (1.65-3.04) |
| Model 2 | 1 [Reference] | 1.12 (0.88-1.43) | 1.05 (0.67-1.62) | 1.14 (0.92-1.42) | 2.27 (1.67-3.09) |
| Model 3 | 1 [Reference] | 1.08 (0.85-1.38) | 0.94 (0.61-1.46) | 1.15 (0.92-1.43) | 2.15 (1.58-2.29) |
| Model 4 | 1 [Reference] | 1.10 (0.87-1. 40) | 0.90 (0.57-1.42) | 1.13 (0.90-1.40) | 2.18 (1.61-2.97) |
| Model 5 | 1 [Reference] | 1.11 (0.88-1.42) | 0.90 (0.57-1.42) | 1.10 (0.89-1.38) | 2.14 (1.57-2.91) |
| Women | |||||
| Events, No./total No. (%) | 286/5098 (5.6) | 77/1271 (6.1) | 37/731 (5.1) | 91/1405 (6.5) | 61/688 (8.9) |
| Risk per 10 000 person-years | 85 | 91 | 77 | 99 | 134 |
| Model 1 | 1 [Reference] | 1.06 (0.83-1.36) | 0.89 (0.64-1.26) | 1.13 (0.90-1.43) | 1.42 (1.07-1.87) |
| Model 2 | 1 [Reference] | 1.08 (0.84-1.39) | 0.96 (0.68-1.37) | 1.12 (0.88-1.42) | 1.37 (1.03-1.80) |
| Model 3 | 1 [Reference] | 1.07 (0.83-1.37) | 0.89 (0.63-1.25) | 1.14 (0.90-1.44) | 1.37 (1.04-1.81) |
| Model 4 | 1 [Reference] | 1.07 (0.83-1.39) | 0.88 (0.62-1.24) | 1.17 (0.93-1.49) | 1.35 (1.03-1.79) |
| Model 5 | 1 [Reference] | 1.07 (0.83-1.38) | 0.87 (0.62-1.24) | 1.16 (0.92-1.48) | 1.34 (1.02-1.78) |
| Cancer mortality | |||||
| Men | |||||
| Events, No./total No. (%) | 215/4888 (4.4) | 42/789 (5.3) | 9/230 (3.9) | 36/842 (4.3) | 18/197 (9.1) |
| Risk per 10 000 person-years | 65 | 77 | 58 | 61 | 130 |
| Model 1 | 1 [Reference] | 1.23 (0.88-1.71) | 0.89 (0.46-1.73) | 0.92 (0.65-1.31) | 1.98 (1.23-3.21) |
| Model 2 | 1 [Reference] | 1.33 (0.95-1.85) | 1.04 (0.53-2.03) | 0.90 (0.63-1.28) | 2.02 (1.25-3.27) |
| Model 3 | 1 [Reference] | 1.23 (0.89-1.72) | 0.88 (0.45-1.72) | 0.93 (0.64-1.31) | 1.94 (1.20-3.14) |
| Model 4 | 1 [Reference] | 1.24 (0.89-1.74) | 0.83 (0.41-1.67) | 0.90 (0.64-1.29) | 1.93 (1.20-3.13) |
| Model 5 | 1 [Reference] | 1.25 (0.89-1.75) | 0.82 (0.40-1.66) | 0.88 (0.62-1.26) | 1.87 (1.15-3.03) |
| Women | |||||
| Events, No./total No. (%) | 124/4936 (2.5) | 32/1226 (2.6) | 17/711 (2.4) | 44/1358 (3.2) | 26/653 (4.0) |
| Risk per 10 000 person-years | 37 | 38 | 35 | 48 | 57 |
| Model 1 | 1 [Reference] | 1.01 (0.69-1.50) | 0.95 (0.56-1.57) | 1.28 (0.91-1.80) | 1.44 (0.95-2.20) |
| Model 2 | 1 [Reference] | 1.05 (0.71-1.54) | 1.02 (0.61-1.69) | 1.26 (0.89-1.77) | 1.38 (0.90-2.11) |
| Model 3 | 1 [Reference] | 1.02 (0.69-1.50) | 0.94 (0.57-1.56) | 1.28 (0.91-1.81) | 1.42 (0.93-2.17) |
| Model 4 | 1 [Reference] | 1.05 (0.71-1.55) | 0.88 (0.51-1.49) | 1.33 (0.95-1.88) | 1.50 (0.98-2.29) |
| Model 5 | 1 [Reference] | 1.05 (0.71-1.54) | 0.88 (0.51-1.40) | 1.32 (0.94-1.87) | 1.49 (0.97-2.28) |
| CVD mortality | |||||
| Men | |||||
| Events, No./total No. (%) | 114/4787 (2.4) | 12/759 (1.6) | 6/227 (2.6) | 26/832 (3.1) | 9/188 (4.8) |
| Risk per 10 000 person-years | 34 | 22 | 39 | 45 | 65 |
| Model 1 | 1 [Reference] | 0.70 (0.38-1.25) | 1.10 (0.48-2.49) | 1.24 (0.81-1.90) | 1.77 (0.90-3.50) |
| Model 2 | 1 [Reference] | 0.72 (0.40-1.31) | 1.19 (0.52-2.73) | 1.23 (0.80-1.88) | 1.80 (0.91-3.56) |
| Model 3 | 1 [Reference] | 0.70 (0.40-1.27) | 1.08 (0.48-2.45) | 1.24 (0.81-1.89) | 1.71 (0.87-3.37) |
| Model 4 | 1 [Reference] | 0.71 (0.39-1.29) | 0.92 (0.38-2.25) | 1.20 (0.78-1.84) | 1.72 (0.87-3.35) |
| Model 5 | 1 [Reference] | 0.71 (0.39-1.28) | 0.92 (0.38-2.26) | 1.19 (0.77-1.82) | 1.71 (0.87-3.38) |
| Women | |||||
| Events, No./total No. (%) | 76/4888 (1.6) | 24/1218 (2.0) | 10/704 (1.4) | 23/1337 (1.7) | 16/643 (2.5) |
| Risk per 10 000 person-years | 23 | 28 | 21 | 25 | 35 |
| Model 1 | 1 [Reference] | 1.23 (0.78-1.95) | 0.91 (0.47-1.77) | 1.08 (0.67-1.72) | 1.36 (0.80-2.34) |
| Model 2 | 1 [Reference] | 1.29 (0.81-2.04) | 1.02 (0.52-1.99) | 1.05 (0.66-1.68) | 1.27 (0.73-2.18) |
| Model 3 | 1 [Reference] | 1.25 (0.79-1.97) | 0.91 (0.47-1.76) | 1.09 (0.68-1.73) | 1.33 (0.77-2.27) |
| Model 4 | 1 [Reference] | 1.32 (0.83-2.09) | 0.94 (0.49-1.82) | 1.15 (0.72-1.83) | 1.17 (0.66-2.08) |
| Model 5 | 1 [Reference] | 1.32 (0.82-2. 08) | 0.94 (0.49-1.82) | 1.13 (0.70-1.81) | 1.15 (0.65-2.05) |
| Noncancer non-CVD mortality | |||||
| Men | |||||
| Events, No./total No. (%) | 134/4807 (2.8) | 23/770 (3.0) | 6/227 (2.6) | 36/842 (4.3) | 18/197 (9.1) |
| Risk per 10 000 person-years | 40 | 42 | 39 | 62 | 130 |
| Model 1 | 1 [Reference] | 1.13 (0.73-1.76) | 0.94 (0.42-2.10) | 1.46 (1.01-2.10) | 3.03 (1.85-4.95) |
| Model 2 | 1 [Reference] | 1.12 (0.72-1.76) | 0.93 (0.41-2.14) | 1.46 (1.01-2.11) | 3.02 (1.84-4.94) |
| Model 3 | 1 [Reference] | 1.14 (0.74-1.78) | 0.92 (0.41-2.08) | 1.44 (1.00-2.09) | 2.83 (1.72-4.64) |
| Model 4 | 1 [Reference] | 1.20 (0.77-1.87) | 0.98 (0.43-2.22) | 1,42 (0.98-2.06) | 2.99 (1.82-4.91) |
| Model 5 | 1 [Reference] | 1.21 (0.77-1.89) | 0.98 (0.43-2.22) | 1.39 (0.96-2.02) | 2.93 (1.78-4.80) |
| Women | |||||
| Events, No./total No. (%) | 86/4898 (1.8) | 21/1215 (1.7) | 10/704 (1.4) | 24/1338 (1.8) | 19/646 (2.9) |
| Risk per 10 000 person-years | 26 | 25 | 20 | 26 | 42 |
| Model 1 | 1 [Reference] | 0.95 (0.59-1.53) | 0.81 (0.42-1.55) | 0.98 (0.63-1.54) | 1.44 (0.88-2.37) |
| Model 2 | 1 [Reference] | 0.95 (0.59-1.53) | 0.80 (0.41-1.56) | 0.99 (0.63-1.55) | 1.45 (0.88-2.39) |
| Model 3 | 1 [Reference] | 0.98 (0.61-1.57) | 0.80 (0.41-1.57) | 1.00 (0.64-1.57) | 1.35 (0.82-2.23) |
| Model 4 | 1 [Reference] | 0.90 (0.55-1.48) | 0.82 (0.42-1.57) | 0.99 (0.62-1.57) | 1.33 (0.81-2.20) |
| Model 5 | 1 [Reference] | 0.90 (0.54-1.48) | 0.82 (0.42-1.55) | 0.98 (0.62-1.55) | 1.32 (0.80-2.17) |
Abbreviations: CVD, cardiovascular; WC, waist circumference.
a
There was a significant interaction between the direction of the WC change and sex (P = .01); therefore, results are presented by sex. Models adjusted for age, (model 1); model 1 plus baseline WC (model 2); model 1 plus frailty status (model 3); model 3 plus country of birth, smoking status, alcohol intake, educational level, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes (model 4); and model 4 plus interim hospitalization (model 5).