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. 2023 Mar 2;10(1):145–168. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2023012

Table 3. Limitations of prediction models for COVID-19.

Weaknesses Authors
Dynamical Survival Analysis-based statistical method does not have the flexibility to test arbitrary what-if scenarios involving individual human behaviors because the method is based on population-level equations KhudaBukhsh et al. [101]
The pathway approach for multi-wave epidemics shows its efficiency in describing COVID-19 data, but a more detailed study about the effectiveness of intervention measures is needed to improve predictions Vasconcelos et al. [106]
The modeling is rigid for limited number of parameters in two-phase solution. The key factors of the initial transmission rate and the intensity of hard protective measures are found “manually” Cherednik [107]
The approximation errors grow tenfold in pandemic waves with a sharp increase of infections. Because of the lack of data, model approximates the infection curves with an accuracy of about 10–30% Leonov et al. [108]
A quantitative assessment of the combinatorial effect of different control measures is needed for accurate prediction of the diffusion of COVID-19 Cao et al. [109]
Limitation of the model is the transition from the delta to omicron variant because the rate of the infection changes over time in the epidemic wave Namiki and Yano [110]
Human behavior and its impact on the progression of epidemics are hard to measure and to model Mohammadi et al. [117]
Unlike predictions of epidemiologic models, the reduction of control measures for COVID-19 did not generate a rapid take off of infections Wieland [112]
Epidemiologic models for COVID-19 generate overestimation of deaths Douglas [113]
A limitation of models for pandemic prediction is the assumption of a constant reproductive number, whereas in real contexts it changes over the course of time Korolev [115]
A lot of models do not consider that the deaths of COVID-19 have a skewed distribution towards elderly and susceptible people with comorbidities Chen et al. [116]
A critical limitation of epidemiological models for COVID-19 is that they do not consider the behavioral change of people in the presence of a pandemic Stangier et al. [118]