TABLE 4.
Joinpoint analyses: 2001–2019 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trend 1 | Trend 2 | Trend 3 | Trend 4 | Fixed interval 2015–2019 | ||||||||||
Sex/cancer site or type | Years | APC (95% CI) | p | Years | APC (95% CI) | p | Years | APC (95% CI) | p | Years | APC (95% CI) | p | AAPC (95% CI) d | P |
All sites | ||||||||||||||
Both sexes | 2001–2016 | −1.5 (−1.5, −1.5) e | < .001 | 2016–2019 | −2.3 (−2.6, −1.9) e | < .001 | −2.1 (−2.3, −1.8) e | < .001 | ||||||
Males | 2001–2015 | −1.8 (−1.8, −1.7) e | < .001 | 2015–2019 | −2.3 (−2.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | −2.3 (−2.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | ||||||
Females | 2001–2016 | −1.4 (−1.4, −1.3) e | < .001 | 2016–2019 | −2.1 (−2.5, −1.7) e | < .001 | −1.9 (−2.2, −1.6) e | < .001 | ||||||
Children, ages 0–14 years | 2001–2019 | −1.5 (−1.8, −1.2) e | < .001 | −1.5 (−1.8, −1.2) e | < .001 | |||||||||
AYA, ages 15–39 years | 2001–2005 | −3.0 (−4.0, −2.0) e | < .001 | 2005–2019 | −0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) e | < .001 | −0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) e | < .001 | ||||||
Males | ||||||||||||||
Lung and bronchus | 2001–2005 | −2.0 (−2.4, −1.6) e | < .001 | 2005–2012 | −2.9 (−3.1, −2.7) e | < .001 | 2012–2015 | −4.1 (−5.2, −2.9) e | < .001 | 2015–2019 | −5.4 (−5.8, −5.0) e | < .001 | −5.4 (−5.8, −5.0) e | < .001 |
Prostate | 2001–2013 | −3.4 (−3.7, −3.2) e | < .001 | 2013–2019 | −0.6 (−1.2, 0.1) | .09 | −0.6 (−1.2, 0.1) | .09 | ||||||
Colon and rectum | 2001–2009 | −3.1 (−3.4, −2.8) e | <.001 | 2009–2019 | −2.1 (−2.3, −1.9) e | < .001 | −2.1 (−2.3, −1.9) e | < .001 | ||||||
Pancreas | 2001–2019 | 0.2 (0.2–0.3) e | < .001 | 0.2 (0.2–0.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Liver and intrahepatic bile duct | 2001–2013 | 2.7 (2.5–3.0) e | < .001 | 2013–2019 | 0.2 (−0.4, 0.8) | .46 | 0.2 (−0.4, 0.8) | .46 | ||||||
Leukemia | 2001–2012 | −0.9 (−1.1, −0.7) e | < .001 | 2012–2019 | −2.3 (−2.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | −2.3 (−2.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | ||||||
Urinary bladder | 2001–2013 | 0.1 (−0.1, 0.3) | .38 | 2013–2019 | −1.5 (−2.0, −1.0) e | < .001 | −1.5 (−2.0, −1.0) e | < .001 | ||||||
Non‐Hodgkin lymphoma | 2001–2006 | −3.0 (−3.7, −2.4) e | < .001 | 2006–2019 | −2.0 (−2.1, −1.8) e | < .001 | −2.0 (−2.1, −1.8) e | < .001 | ||||||
Esophagus | 2001–2006 | 0.0 (−0.8, 0.9) | .94 | 2006–2019 | −1.2 (−1.4, −1.0) e | < .001 | −1.2 (−1.4, −1.0) e | < .001 | ||||||
Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2006 | −1.2 (−2.3, −0.1) e | .04 | 2006–2019 | 0.4 (0.1–0.6) e | .007 | 0.4 (0.1–0.6) e | .007 | ||||||
Kidney and renal pelvis | 2001–2015 | −0.8 (−0.9, −0.6) e | < .001 | 2015–2019 | −2.6 (−3.4, −1.7) e | < .001 | −2.6 (−3.4, −1.7) e | < .001 | ||||||
Myeloma | 2001–2019 | −1.0 (−1.1, −0.8) e | < .001 | −1.0 (−1.1, −0.8) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Oral cavity and pharynx | 2001–2009 | −1.4 (−2.0, −0.8) e | < .001 | 2009–2016 | 1.1 (0.2–2.0) e | .02 | 2016–2019 | −1.3 (−3.7, 1.1) | .26 | −0.7 (−2.3, 0.9) | .39 | |||
Stomach | 2001–2006 | −3.7 (−4.5, −2.9) e | < .001 | 2006–2019 | −2.5 (−2.7, −2.3) e | < .001 | −2.5 (−2.7, −2.3) e | < .001 | ||||||
Melanoma of the skin | 2001–2009 | 1.0 (0.5–1.6) e | .003 | 2009–2014 | −1.4 (−2.8, 0.0) | .06 | 2014–2017 | −7.5 (−11.8, −3.0) e | .005 | 2017–2019 | −1.5 (−6.3, 3.4) | .49 | −4.6 (−7.3, −1.7) e | .002 |
Nonmelanoma skin | 2001–2010 | 0.7 (−0.2, 1.6) | .10 | 2010–2015 | 3.5 (0.8–6.2) e | .01 | 2015–2019 | −1.9 (−4.2, 0.5) | .10 | −1.9 (−4.2, 0.5) | .10 | |||
Larynx | 2001–2019 | −2.5 (−2.6, −2.3) e | < .001 | −2.5 (−2.6, −2.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Soft tissue, including heart | 2001–2014 | 0.8 (0.4–1.1) e | < .001 | 2014–2019 | −0.9 (−2.3, 0.4) | .16 | −0.9 (−2.3, 0.4) | .16 | ||||||
Bones and joints | 2001–2013 | −0.1 (−0.7, 0.5) | .74 | 2013–2019 | 2.3 (0.7–3.9) e | .007 | 2.3 (0.7–3.9) e | .007 | ||||||
Females | ||||||||||||||
Lung and bronchus | 2001–2007 | −0.6 (−0.8, −0.3) e | .001 | 2007–2014 | −2.0 (−2.3, −1.7) e | < .001 | 2014–2019 | −4.2 (−4.6, −3.9) e | < .001 | −4.2 (−4.6, −3.9) e | < .001 | |||
Breast | 2001–2003 | −1.6 (−2.4, −0.7) e | .003 | 2003–2007 | −2.3 (−2.7, −1.9) e | < .001 | 2007–2013 | −1.6 (−1.8, −1.4) e | < .001 | 2013–2019 | −1.2 (−1.3, −1.0) e | < .001 | −1.2 (−1.3, −1.0) e | < .001 |
Colon and rectum | 2001–2010 | −3.0 (−3.3, −2.7) e | < .001 | 2010–2019 | −2.0 (−2.3, −1.7) e | < .001 | −2.0 (−2.3, −1.7) e | < .001 | ||||||
Pancreas | 2001–2019 | 0.2 (0.1, 0.3) e | < .001 | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Ovary | 2001–2005 | −1.1 (−2.0, −0.2) e | .02 | 2005–2017 | −2.3 (−2.5, −2.1) e | < .001 | 2017–2019 | −4.3 (−7.1, −1.3) e | .009 | −3.3 (−4.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | |||
Corpus and uterus, NOS | 2001–2008 | 0.3 (−0.4, 0.9) | .40 | 2008–2019 | 1.9 (1.6–2.2) e | < .001 | 1.9 (1.6–2.2) e | < .001 | ||||||
Leukemia | 2001–2013 | −1.2 (−1.4, −0.9) e | < .001 | 2013–2019 | −2.2 (−2.9, −1.5) e | < .001 | −2.2 (−2.9, −1.5) e | < .001 | ||||||
Liver and intrahepatic bile duct | 2001–2004 | 2.7 (1.1–4.3) e | .005 | 2004–2008 | 0.7 (−0.8, 2.2) | .33 | 2008–2014 | 3.2 (2.6–3.8) e | < .001 | 2014–2019 | 0.5 (−0.1, 1.0) | .09 | 0.5 (−0.1, 1.0) | .09 |
Non‐Hodgkin lymphoma | 2001–2005 | −3.6 (−4.5, −2.7) e | < .001 | 2005–2019 | −2.6 (−2.8, −2.5) e | < .001 | −2.6 (−2.8, −2.5) e | < .001 | ||||||
Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2006 | −1.2 (−2.2, −0.2) e | .03 | 2006–2017 | 0.5 (0.2–0.8) e | .008 | 2017–2019 | −2.1 (−6.0, 2.0) | .27 | −0.8 (−2.6, 1.0) | .37 | |||
Myeloma | 2001–2009 | −2.5 (−3.0, −2.0) e | < .001 | 2009–2012 | 1.8 (−2.7, 6.5) | .40 | 2012–2019 | −2.0 (−2.6, −1.4) e | < .001 | −2.0 (−2.6, −1.4) e | < .001 | |||
Kidney and renal pelvis | 2001–2019 | −1.5 (−1.7, −1.3) e | < .001 | −1.5 (−1.7, −1.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Cervix uteri | 2001–2003 | −4.0 (−8.1, 0.3) | .06 | 2003–2019 | −0.8 (−0.9, −0.6) e | < .001 | −0.8 (−0.9, −0.6) e | < .001 | ||||||
Stomach | 2001–2008 | −3.0 (−3.5, −2.4) e | < .001 | 2008–2019 | −1.9 (−2.1, −1.6) e | < .001 | −1.9 (−2.1, −1.6) e | < .001 | ||||||
Urinary bladder | 2001–2019 | −0.6 (−0.8, −0.5) e | < .001 | −0.6 (−0.8, −0.5) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Esophagus | 2001–2019 | −1.5 (−1.7, −1.4) e | < .001 | −1.5 (−1.7, −1.4) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Melanoma of the skin | 2001–2012 | −0.3 (−1.0, 0.3) | .29 | 2012–2019 | −4.2 (−5.4, −2.9) e | < .001 | −4.2 (−5.4, −2.9) e | < .001 | ||||||
Oral cavity and pharynx | 2001–2011 | −1.6 (−2.3, −0.9) e | < .001 | 2011–2019 | 0.3 (−0.6, 1.3) | .46 | 0.3 (−0.6, 1.3) | .46 | ||||||
Soft tissue, including heart | 2001–2017 | 0.2 (0.0–0.3) e | .01 | 2017–2019 | −2.0 (−5.2, 1.3) | .21 | −0.9 (−2.4, 0.6) | .23 | ||||||
Gallbladder | 2001–2019 | −1.3 (−1.6, −1.0) e | < .001 | −1.3 (−1.6, −1.0) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Children | ||||||||||||||
Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2019 | −0.4 (−0.8, 0.0) e | .03 | −0.4 (−0.8, 0.0) e | .03 | |||||||||
Leukemia | 2001–2019 | −2.9 (−3.4, −2.3) e | < .001 | −2.9 (−3.4, −2.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
AYAs | ||||||||||||||
Female breast | 2001–2010 | −3.3 (−4.1, −2.4) e | < .001 | 2010–2019 | 0.8 (−0.2, 1.7) | .11 | 0.8 (−0.2, 1.7) | .11 | ||||||
Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2019 | −0.1 (−0.5, 0.3) | .53 | −0.1 (−0.5, 0.3) | .53 | |||||||||
Leukemia | 2001–2019 | −2.2 (−2.6, −1.9) e | < .001 | −2.2 (−2.6, −1.9) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Colon and rectum | 2001–2019 | 0.8 (0.4–1.2) e | < .001 | 0.8 (0.4–1.2) e | < .001 |
Abbreviations: AAPC, average annual percent change; APC, annual percent change; AYAs, adolescents and young adults; NOS, not otherwise specified.
Joinpoint models with up to three joinpoints are based on rates per 100,000 persons and are age standardized to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups [US Bureau of the Census. Current Population Report P25‐1130. US Government Printing Office; 2000]; National Cancer Institute Joinpoint Regression Program, version 4.9.0.0. [Statistical Research and Applications Branch, National Cancer Institute; 202114]).
Cancers are listed in descending rank order of sex‐specific, age‐adjusted death rates for 2015–2019 for all racial/ethnic groups combined. More than 15 cancers may appear under men and women to include the top 15 cancers in each racial/ethnic group.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics public‐use data file for the total United States.
The AAPC is the average APC and is a weighted average of the APCs over the fixed interval 2015–2019 using the underlying joinpoint model for the period of 2001–2019.
The APC or AAPC is statistically significantly different from zero (two‐sided t‐test; p < .05).