TABLE 4.
Joinpoint trends a for the most common causes of cancer death, b all racial/ethnic groups combined by sex and age group, United States, c 2001–2019
| Joinpoint analyses: 2001–2019 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend 1 | Trend 2 | Trend 3 | Trend 4 | Fixed interval 2015–2019 | ||||||||||
| Sex/cancer site or type | Years | APC (95% CI) | p | Years | APC (95% CI) | p | Years | APC (95% CI) | p | Years | APC (95% CI) | p | AAPC (95% CI) d | P |
| All sites | ||||||||||||||
| Both sexes | 2001–2016 | −1.5 (−1.5, −1.5) e | < .001 | 2016–2019 | −2.3 (−2.6, −1.9) e | < .001 | −2.1 (−2.3, −1.8) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Males | 2001–2015 | −1.8 (−1.8, −1.7) e | < .001 | 2015–2019 | −2.3 (−2.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | −2.3 (−2.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Females | 2001–2016 | −1.4 (−1.4, −1.3) e | < .001 | 2016–2019 | −2.1 (−2.5, −1.7) e | < .001 | −1.9 (−2.2, −1.6) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Children, ages 0–14 years | 2001–2019 | −1.5 (−1.8, −1.2) e | < .001 | −1.5 (−1.8, −1.2) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| AYA, ages 15–39 years | 2001–2005 | −3.0 (−4.0, −2.0) e | < .001 | 2005–2019 | −0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) e | < .001 | −0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Males | ||||||||||||||
| Lung and bronchus | 2001–2005 | −2.0 (−2.4, −1.6) e | < .001 | 2005–2012 | −2.9 (−3.1, −2.7) e | < .001 | 2012–2015 | −4.1 (−5.2, −2.9) e | < .001 | 2015–2019 | −5.4 (−5.8, −5.0) e | < .001 | −5.4 (−5.8, −5.0) e | < .001 |
| Prostate | 2001–2013 | −3.4 (−3.7, −3.2) e | < .001 | 2013–2019 | −0.6 (−1.2, 0.1) | .09 | −0.6 (−1.2, 0.1) | .09 | ||||||
| Colon and rectum | 2001–2009 | −3.1 (−3.4, −2.8) e | <.001 | 2009–2019 | −2.1 (−2.3, −1.9) e | < .001 | −2.1 (−2.3, −1.9) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Pancreas | 2001–2019 | 0.2 (0.2–0.3) e | < .001 | 0.2 (0.2–0.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Liver and intrahepatic bile duct | 2001–2013 | 2.7 (2.5–3.0) e | < .001 | 2013–2019 | 0.2 (−0.4, 0.8) | .46 | 0.2 (−0.4, 0.8) | .46 | ||||||
| Leukemia | 2001–2012 | −0.9 (−1.1, −0.7) e | < .001 | 2012–2019 | −2.3 (−2.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | −2.3 (−2.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Urinary bladder | 2001–2013 | 0.1 (−0.1, 0.3) | .38 | 2013–2019 | −1.5 (−2.0, −1.0) e | < .001 | −1.5 (−2.0, −1.0) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Non‐Hodgkin lymphoma | 2001–2006 | −3.0 (−3.7, −2.4) e | < .001 | 2006–2019 | −2.0 (−2.1, −1.8) e | < .001 | −2.0 (−2.1, −1.8) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Esophagus | 2001–2006 | 0.0 (−0.8, 0.9) | .94 | 2006–2019 | −1.2 (−1.4, −1.0) e | < .001 | −1.2 (−1.4, −1.0) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2006 | −1.2 (−2.3, −0.1) e | .04 | 2006–2019 | 0.4 (0.1–0.6) e | .007 | 0.4 (0.1–0.6) e | .007 | ||||||
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 2001–2015 | −0.8 (−0.9, −0.6) e | < .001 | 2015–2019 | −2.6 (−3.4, −1.7) e | < .001 | −2.6 (−3.4, −1.7) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Myeloma | 2001–2019 | −1.0 (−1.1, −0.8) e | < .001 | −1.0 (−1.1, −0.8) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Oral cavity and pharynx | 2001–2009 | −1.4 (−2.0, −0.8) e | < .001 | 2009–2016 | 1.1 (0.2–2.0) e | .02 | 2016–2019 | −1.3 (−3.7, 1.1) | .26 | −0.7 (−2.3, 0.9) | .39 | |||
| Stomach | 2001–2006 | −3.7 (−4.5, −2.9) e | < .001 | 2006–2019 | −2.5 (−2.7, −2.3) e | < .001 | −2.5 (−2.7, −2.3) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Melanoma of the skin | 2001–2009 | 1.0 (0.5–1.6) e | .003 | 2009–2014 | −1.4 (−2.8, 0.0) | .06 | 2014–2017 | −7.5 (−11.8, −3.0) e | .005 | 2017–2019 | −1.5 (−6.3, 3.4) | .49 | −4.6 (−7.3, −1.7) e | .002 |
| Nonmelanoma skin | 2001–2010 | 0.7 (−0.2, 1.6) | .10 | 2010–2015 | 3.5 (0.8–6.2) e | .01 | 2015–2019 | −1.9 (−4.2, 0.5) | .10 | −1.9 (−4.2, 0.5) | .10 | |||
| Larynx | 2001–2019 | −2.5 (−2.6, −2.3) e | < .001 | −2.5 (−2.6, −2.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Soft tissue, including heart | 2001–2014 | 0.8 (0.4–1.1) e | < .001 | 2014–2019 | −0.9 (−2.3, 0.4) | .16 | −0.9 (−2.3, 0.4) | .16 | ||||||
| Bones and joints | 2001–2013 | −0.1 (−0.7, 0.5) | .74 | 2013–2019 | 2.3 (0.7–3.9) e | .007 | 2.3 (0.7–3.9) e | .007 | ||||||
| Females | ||||||||||||||
| Lung and bronchus | 2001–2007 | −0.6 (−0.8, −0.3) e | .001 | 2007–2014 | −2.0 (−2.3, −1.7) e | < .001 | 2014–2019 | −4.2 (−4.6, −3.9) e | < .001 | −4.2 (−4.6, −3.9) e | < .001 | |||
| Breast | 2001–2003 | −1.6 (−2.4, −0.7) e | .003 | 2003–2007 | −2.3 (−2.7, −1.9) e | < .001 | 2007–2013 | −1.6 (−1.8, −1.4) e | < .001 | 2013–2019 | −1.2 (−1.3, −1.0) e | < .001 | −1.2 (−1.3, −1.0) e | < .001 |
| Colon and rectum | 2001–2010 | −3.0 (−3.3, −2.7) e | < .001 | 2010–2019 | −2.0 (−2.3, −1.7) e | < .001 | −2.0 (−2.3, −1.7) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Pancreas | 2001–2019 | 0.2 (0.1, 0.3) e | < .001 | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Ovary | 2001–2005 | −1.1 (−2.0, −0.2) e | .02 | 2005–2017 | −2.3 (−2.5, −2.1) e | < .001 | 2017–2019 | −4.3 (−7.1, −1.3) e | .009 | −3.3 (−4.6, −2.0) e | < .001 | |||
| Corpus and uterus, NOS | 2001–2008 | 0.3 (−0.4, 0.9) | .40 | 2008–2019 | 1.9 (1.6–2.2) e | < .001 | 1.9 (1.6–2.2) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Leukemia | 2001–2013 | −1.2 (−1.4, −0.9) e | < .001 | 2013–2019 | −2.2 (−2.9, −1.5) e | < .001 | −2.2 (−2.9, −1.5) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Liver and intrahepatic bile duct | 2001–2004 | 2.7 (1.1–4.3) e | .005 | 2004–2008 | 0.7 (−0.8, 2.2) | .33 | 2008–2014 | 3.2 (2.6–3.8) e | < .001 | 2014–2019 | 0.5 (−0.1, 1.0) | .09 | 0.5 (−0.1, 1.0) | .09 |
| Non‐Hodgkin lymphoma | 2001–2005 | −3.6 (−4.5, −2.7) e | < .001 | 2005–2019 | −2.6 (−2.8, −2.5) e | < .001 | −2.6 (−2.8, −2.5) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2006 | −1.2 (−2.2, −0.2) e | .03 | 2006–2017 | 0.5 (0.2–0.8) e | .008 | 2017–2019 | −2.1 (−6.0, 2.0) | .27 | −0.8 (−2.6, 1.0) | .37 | |||
| Myeloma | 2001–2009 | −2.5 (−3.0, −2.0) e | < .001 | 2009–2012 | 1.8 (−2.7, 6.5) | .40 | 2012–2019 | −2.0 (−2.6, −1.4) e | < .001 | −2.0 (−2.6, −1.4) e | < .001 | |||
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 2001–2019 | −1.5 (−1.7, −1.3) e | < .001 | −1.5 (−1.7, −1.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Cervix uteri | 2001–2003 | −4.0 (−8.1, 0.3) | .06 | 2003–2019 | −0.8 (−0.9, −0.6) e | < .001 | −0.8 (−0.9, −0.6) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Stomach | 2001–2008 | −3.0 (−3.5, −2.4) e | < .001 | 2008–2019 | −1.9 (−2.1, −1.6) e | < .001 | −1.9 (−2.1, −1.6) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Urinary bladder | 2001–2019 | −0.6 (−0.8, −0.5) e | < .001 | −0.6 (−0.8, −0.5) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Esophagus | 2001–2019 | −1.5 (−1.7, −1.4) e | < .001 | −1.5 (−1.7, −1.4) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Melanoma of the skin | 2001–2012 | −0.3 (−1.0, 0.3) | .29 | 2012–2019 | −4.2 (−5.4, −2.9) e | < .001 | −4.2 (−5.4, −2.9) e | < .001 | ||||||
| Oral cavity and pharynx | 2001–2011 | −1.6 (−2.3, −0.9) e | < .001 | 2011–2019 | 0.3 (−0.6, 1.3) | .46 | 0.3 (−0.6, 1.3) | .46 | ||||||
| Soft tissue, including heart | 2001–2017 | 0.2 (0.0–0.3) e | .01 | 2017–2019 | −2.0 (−5.2, 1.3) | .21 | −0.9 (−2.4, 0.6) | .23 | ||||||
| Gallbladder | 2001–2019 | −1.3 (−1.6, −1.0) e | < .001 | −1.3 (−1.6, −1.0) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Children | ||||||||||||||
| Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2019 | −0.4 (−0.8, 0.0) e | .03 | −0.4 (−0.8, 0.0) e | .03 | |||||||||
| Leukemia | 2001–2019 | −2.9 (−3.4, −2.3) e | < .001 | −2.9 (−3.4, −2.3) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| AYAs | ||||||||||||||
| Female breast | 2001–2010 | −3.3 (−4.1, −2.4) e | < .001 | 2010–2019 | 0.8 (−0.2, 1.7) | .11 | 0.8 (−0.2, 1.7) | .11 | ||||||
| Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2019 | −0.1 (−0.5, 0.3) | .53 | −0.1 (−0.5, 0.3) | .53 | |||||||||
| Leukemia | 2001–2019 | −2.2 (−2.6, −1.9) e | < .001 | −2.2 (−2.6, −1.9) e | < .001 | |||||||||
| Colon and rectum | 2001–2019 | 0.8 (0.4–1.2) e | < .001 | 0.8 (0.4–1.2) e | < .001 | |||||||||
Abbreviations: AAPC, average annual percent change; APC, annual percent change; AYAs, adolescents and young adults; NOS, not otherwise specified.
a
Joinpoint models with up to three joinpoints are based on rates per 100,000 persons and are age standardized to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups [US Bureau of the Census. Current Population Report P25‐1130. US Government Printing Office; 2000]; National Cancer Institute Joinpoint Regression Program, version 4.9.0.0. [Statistical Research and Applications Branch, National Cancer Institute; 202114]).
b
Cancers are listed in descending rank order of sex‐specific, age‐adjusted death rates for 2015–2019 for all racial/ethnic groups combined. More than 15 cancers may appear under men and women to include the top 15 cancers in each racial/ethnic group.
c
Source: National Center for Health Statistics public‐use data file for the total United States.
d
The AAPC is the average APC and is a weighted average of the APCs over the fixed interval 2015–2019 using the underlying joinpoint model for the period of 2001–2019.
e
The APC or AAPC is statistically significantly different from zero (two‐sided t‐test; p < .05).