Table 1: Type 1 Diabetes Risk and Titer Percentiles for Each Islet Autoantibody Cluster:
Clusters are labelled according to the autoantibody cluster center: baseline (blue, a), all declining (orange, b), all increasing (green, c), IA-2A dominant (red, d), GADA dominant (purple, e), or IA-2A and GADA dominant (brown, f). Risk for type 1 diabetes derived from time-to-event analysis for each autoantibody cluster in each year. The 1-year and 5-year incidences are presented as percentages with the 95% confidence interval (CI). “N/A” indicates years that did not have 5-year islet autoantibody data available. GADA, IA-2A, and IAA titers for the cluster centers were converted to z-scores and percentiles are reported for the 3-month intervals used in the clustering for each year.
| Clustering | Type 1 Diabetes Risk | GADA Titer Percentiles | IA-2A Titer Percentiles | IAA Titer Percentiles | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Cluster | 1-year Risk (CI) | 5-year Risk (CI) | 3-month | 6-month | 9-month | 12-month | 3-month | 6-month | 9-month | 12-month | 3-month | 6-month | 9-month | 12-month |
| 1 | Cluster 1 a | 1.80% (1.21, 2.68) | 10.07% (8.53, 11.86) | 46.04 | 45.40 | 45.76 | 46.68 | 46.79 | 46.70 | 46.84 | 47.12 | 46.26 | 44.93 | 45.06 | 45.91 |
| Cluster 2 b | 3.12% (0.449, 20.18) | 3.12% (0.449, 20.18) | 99.99 | 97.66 | 70.75 | 50.53 | 50.09 | 50.52 | 48.07 | 47.52 | 57.87 | 47.46 | 45.98 | 46.77 | |
| Cluster 3 c | 56.25% (40.19, 73.54) | 68.75% (52.66, 83.62) | 45.68 | 50.03 | 68.71 | 86.70 | 47.80 | 47.63 | 50.58 | 71.70 | 48 | 76.42 | 99.78 | 100 | |
| 2 | Cluster 4 a | 1.21% (0.73, 2.01) | 6.10% (4.87, 7.62) | 45.80 | 46.10 | 46.56 | 47.19 | 47.03 | 47.32 | 47.47 | 47.75 | 45.17 | 45.38 | 45.67 | 46.11 |
| Cluster 5 c | 27.96% (19.98, 38.26) | 69.19% (59.65, 78.29) | 69.72 | 82.21 | 89.59 | 91.62 | 58.60 | 73.56 | 79.82 | 87.22 | 79.25 | 85.56 | 90.75 | 91.81 | |
| 3 | Cluster 6 a | 0.52% (0.229, 1.16) | 4.80% (3.690, 6.239) | 46.57 | 46.91 | 47.67 | 48.17 | 47.72 | 47.80 | 48.12 | 48.56 | 46.22 | 46.27 | 46.21 | 46.82 |
| Cluster 7 c | 20.87% (14.51, 29.5) | 67.73% (59.06, 76.14) | 90.90 | 92.77 | 92.96 | 91.74 | 83.97 | 92.52 | 95.05 | 97.45 | 79.35 | 81.86 | 81.15 | 82.84 | |
| 4 | Cluster 8 a | 1.03% (0.570, 1.859) | 4.50% (3.39, 5.96) | 47.02 | 47.07 | 47.42 | 47.93 | 48.14 | 48.27 | 48.44 | 48.82 | 46.14 | 46.06 | 46.18 | 46.45 |
| Cluster 9 d | 28.93% (20.27, 40.27) | 78.78% (68.95, 87.19) | 73.88 | 71.92 | 71.90 | 70.01 | 99.42 | 99.59 | 99.78 | 99.75 | 76.70 | 73.22 | 72.73 | 74.72 | |
| Cluster 10 e | 5.93% (2.27, 15.03) | 30.45% (20.82, 43.14) | 98.08 | 99.23 | 99.70 | 99.69 | 55.13 | 58.07 | 58.59 | 62.55 | 59.97 | 63.38 | 62.72 | 61.31 | |
| 5 | Cluster 11 a | 0.60% (0.27, 1.329) | 4.34% (3.16, 5.93) | 47.12 | 47.31 | 47.72 | 48.27 | 48.38 | 48.46 | 48.50 | 48.60 | 45.76 | 45.84 | 45.90 | 45.94 |
| Cluster 12 d | 25.49% (17.59, 36.09) | 74.06% (63.67, 83.44) | 75.16 | 75.75 | 73.24 | 71.83 | 99.22 | 99.57 | 99.68 | 99.74 | 68.58 | 67.61 | 65.90 | 67.39 | |
| Cluster 13 e | 6.11% (2.59, 14.06) | 28.49% (19.41, 40.58) | 98.77 | 99.25 | 99.38 | 99.42 | 55.20 | 59.38 | 61.88 | 63.19 | 58.92 | 60.10 | 58.56 | 57.68 | |
| 6 | Cluster 14 a | 0.63% (0.279, 1.39) | 5.41% (3.980, 7.340) | 47.66 | 47.75 | 47.92 | 48.17 | 48.75 | 48.82 | 48.96 | 48.99 | 45.79 | 45.74 | 45.81 | 46.29 |
| Cluster 15 d | 20.88% (13.86, 30.75) | 63.40% (52.09, 74.66) | 79.87 | 79.76 | 77.94 | 78.04 | 99.29 | 99.68 | 99.67 | 99.71 | 61.49 | 61.40 | 61.03 | 60.08 | |
| Cluster 16 e | 4.86% (1.849, 12.44) | 25.06% (16.09, 37.76) | 98.72 | 99.06 | 99.32 | 99.32 | 54.15 | 55.09 | 55.96 | 59 | 54.60 | 54.76 | 55.84 | 56.22 | |
| 7 | Cluster 17 a | 0.66% (0.3, 1.46) | 5.05% (3.52, 7.21) | 47.58 | 47.65 | 47.81 | 47.94 | 48.77 | 48.77 | 48.91 | 49.07 | 45.74 | 45.74 | 45.77 | 45.92 |
| Cluster 18 e | 4.38% (1.67, 11.26) | 31.44% (20.23, 46.77) | 98.11 | 98.81 | 99.09 | 98.97 | 54.83 | 56.11 | 58.03 | 60.33 | 54.41 | 56.74 | 55.40 | 56.91 | |
| Cluster 19 d | 24.42% (16.66, 34.94) | 62.73% (50.33, 75.14) | 80.75 | 80.33 | 80.44 | 81.50 | 99.57 | 99.57 | 99.68 | 99.71 | 57.70 | 59.28 | 59.37 | 61.28 | |
| 8 | Cluster 20 a | 0.70% (0.31, 1.55) | N/A | 47.75 | 47.77 | 48 | 48.30 | 48.54 | 48.58 | 48.68 | 48.77 | 45.76 | 45.70 | 45.96 | 45.92 |
| Cluster 21 d | 24.08% (16.56, 34.23) | N/A | 80.31 | 80.16 | 80.05 | 79.28 | 98.96 | 99.30 | 99.39 | 99.31 | 60.04 | 59.90 | 60.97 | 62.60 | |
| Cluster 22 e | 4.81% (1.83, 12.32) | N/A | 98.81 | 99.24 | 99.05 | 99.14 | 56.32 | 58.97 | 61.60 | 63.91 | 52.72 | 52.14 | 52.66 | 53.59 | |
| 9 | Cluster 23 a | 1.05% (0.5, 2.19) | N/A | 47.64 | 47.81 | 48 | 48.05 | 48.52 | 48.49 | 48.62 | 48.79 | 45.52 | 45.49 | 45.60 | 45.77 |
| Cluster 24 e | 6.09% (2.3, 15.61) | N/A | 96.97 | 96.68 | 97.59 | 98.55 | 50.28 | 51.52 | 53.36 | 55.99 | 51.62 | 52.61 | 54.46 | 53.18 | |
| Cluster 25 d | 23.71% (13.81, 38.9) | N/A | 59.46 | 58.75 | 58.61 | 58.67 | 98.61 | 98.84 | 99.20 | 98.95 | 55.61 | 56.79 | 55.50 | 56.44 | |
| Cluster 26 f | 8.27% (2.73, 23.61) | N/A | 99.44 | 99.74 | 99.58 | 99.40 | 99.28 | 99.58 | 99.61 | 99.35 | 56.18 | 57.60 | 56.23 | 56.11 | |
| 10 | Cluster 27 a | 1.39% (0.66, 2.91) | N/A | 47.90 | 48.01 | 48.11 | 48.43 | 48.45 | 48.47 | 48.60 | 48.72 | 45.56 | 45.41 | 45.52 | 45.82 |
| Cluster 28 e | 3.74% (0.940, 14.24) | N/A | 97.28 | 97.94 | 98.39 | 98.14 | 51.36 | 52.05 | 53.04 | 56.22 | 55.03 | 55.95 | 53.97 | 54.82 | |
| Cluster 29 d | 21.65% (11.79, 37.8) | N/A | 61.44 | 62.45 | 63.14 | 62.27 | 99.12 | 99.32 | 99.03 | 98.98 | 55.09 | 55.52 | 56.26 | 59.57 | |
| Cluster 30 f | 13.5% (5.28, 32.14) | N/A | 99.71 | 99.56 | 99.58 | 99.42 | 99.68 | 99.55 | 99.54 | 99.56 | 55.47 | 53.65 | 53.64 | 56.65 | |
| 11 | Cluster 31 a | 1.25% (0.52, 2.98) | N/A | 47.98 | 48.12 | 48.30 | 48.31 | 48.75 | 48.73 | 48.73 | 48.85 | 45.27 | 45.40 | 45.56 | 46.13 |
| Cluster 32 e | 4.18% (1.06, 15.72) | N/A | 97.15 | 97.74 | 97.96 | 98.14 | 49.80 | 49.65 | 50.16 | 52.44 | 50.40 | 49.74 | 49.50 | 49.60 | |
| Cluster 33 d | 14.82% (5.81, 34.96) | N/A | 60.80 | 61.63 | 61.70 | 61.91 | 99.37 | 99.49 | 99.68 | 99.50 | 53.53 | 53.94 | 52.55 | 52.02 | |
| Cluster 34 f | 25.00% (10.93, 51.08) | N/A | 99.24 | 99.38 | 99.28 | 99.03 | 98.59 | 99.12 | 99.41 | 99.16 | 62.82 | 64 | 61.84 | 62.95 | |
| 12 | Cluster 35 a | 0.00% (0.0, 0.0) | N/A | 47.73 | 47.62 | 47.89 | 48.12 | 48.31 | 48.31 | 48.30 | 48.33 | 44.94 | 44.86 | 44.78 | 44.83 |
| Cluster 36 e | 3.85% (0.549, 24.31) | N/A | 97.57 | 98.68 | 97.50 | 97.76 | 48.77 | 50.37 | 49.58 | 49.67 | 46.78 | 46.16 | 47 | 46.35 | |
| Cluster 37 d | 30.93% (14.78, 57.50) | N/A | 60.55 | 60.10 | 59.90 | 58.18 | 99.09 | 98.90 | 98.40 | 98.51 | 52.22 | 51.84 | 51.90 | 50.98 | |
| Cluster 38 f | 23.61% (9.48, 51.73) | N/A | 98.97 | 98.16 | 98.50 | 98.16 | 99.11 | 98.78 | 98.60 | 98.45 | 57.63 | 57.05 | 56.91 | 57.77 | |