TABLE 2.
Posterior probability of the best models (posterior probability ≥ 0.05) among the 50 models tested
| Model notation | Survival probability | Recapture probability | Posterior model probability | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β s(sex) | β s(SVL) | β s(SVL2) | β s(sex*SVL) | β s(sex*SVL2) | β p(sex) | β p(SVL) | β p(sex*SVL) | ||
| φ(sex + svl), p(sex + svl) | 1 | 1 | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ | 1 | 1 | ‐ | 0.312 |
| φ(sex * svl), p(sex + svl) | 1 | 1 | ‐ | 1 | ‐ | 1 | 1 | ‐ | 0.209 |
| φ(sex + svl), p(sex * svl) | 1 | 1 | ‐ | 1 | ‐ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.084 |
| φ(sex * svl), p(sex) | 1 | 1 | ‐ | 1 | ‐ | 1 | ‐ | ‐ | 0.084 |
| φ(sex + svl), p(sex) | 1 | 1 | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ | 1 | ‐ | ‐ | 0.074 |
| φ(sex * svl), p(sex * svl) | 1 | 1 | ‐ | 1 | ‐ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.051 |
| φ(sex + svl + svl2), p(sex + svl) | 1 | 1 | 1 | ‐ | ‐ | 1 | 1 | ‐ | 0.050 |
| Pr(Included) | 1 | 1 | 0.186 | 0.447 | 0.035 | 1 | 0.804 | 0.164 | |
The bottom row shows the posterior probability of individual covariates being included in the model. This probability is based on the number of model iterations in which that given covariate was included (see text for details). Notation: β s = linear predictor of the covariate/effect on survival, β p = linear predictor of the covariate/effect on recapture. SVL = snout‐to‐vent length, SVL2 = quadratic term of snout‐to‐vent length, ‐ = predictor not included into the model