TABLE 2.
Overview extracted data from included studies
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First author + publication year | Rulyak et al, 12 2003 | Weinberg et al, 15 2010 | Pandharipande et al, 9 2015 | Pandharipande et al, 10 2015 | Cucchetti et al, 16 2016 | Peters et al, 11 2018 | Raphel et al, 17 2018 | Koopmann et al, 13 2021 |
| Journal | Gastrointestinal endoscopy | Gastroenterology | Radiology | Ebiomedicine | Pancreas | Pancreatology | Radiology | International journal of cancer |
| Country | USA | USA | USA | USA | Italy | USA | USA | The Netherlands |
| Model type | Decision Tree | Markov based clinical Nomogram | Markov model | Markov model | Monte Carlo Simulation | Markov model | Markov model | Markov model |
| Population | Members of FPC kindreds | Pancreatic cystic lesions, male and female (cyst: 0.5 to >3 cm) | General population to high risk group (both male and female) | BRCA2 mutation carriers (with/without FDRs) | 1000 PC patients | General population | Pancreatic cyst (SB‐IPMN), male and female, different comorbidities | High risk group (7.5% life time risk) |
| PC Risk | 18% lifetime risk a | 1% | RR 0‐70 for PC | RR 3.5 or greater | 100% b | RR 0 | Low risk incidental findings | 7.5% lifetime risk |
| Screen method | EUS (on indication + ERCP) | CT or EUS (± FNA) | MRI scan | MRI (combined with EUS) | Hypothetical test | Hypothetical test | Hypothetical imaging test | EUS and MRI |
| Screen sens. (sens. analysis) | 90% for detection of pancreatic dysplasia | 80%‐86% |
56% (0.25‐1.0) For detection of cyst and early stage cancer. No PanIN. |
56% (0.5‐1.0) For detection of cyst and early stage cancer. No PanIN. |
NA | 100% for detection of PanIN3 | 100% for malignant lesions | Disease stage dependent: 60‐99% (±10%) |
| Screen spec. (sens. analysis) | 90% | 99% | 97% (0.5‐1.0) | 97% (0.9‐1.0) | NA | 100% | NA | 99% (±5 and 10%) |
| Screen test complication | Pancreatitis: 5.1% (0.3‐8.2) | Death from EUS‐FNA: 0.01% | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Screening interval | One time | One time | Annual and one time | One time | One time and continuous | Annual | Annual and 5 yearly | |
| Start/stop age (sens. analysis) | 50 | 65, 75, 85 | 50 (40, 60, 70) | 50‐80 | NA | 50, 60 or 70 | 60,80 | |
| Treatment | Surgery (total pancreatectomy) | Surgery | Surgery | Surgery | Surgery | Surgery | Surgery | Surgery |
| Treatment complication risk (sens. analysis) | Mortality risk: 3% (1%‐5%) |
Mortality risk: 2%‐6.4% Chronic compl: 19.5% |
Mortality risk: 2% (0%‐10%) | Mortality risk: 1% (0%‐2.5%) | NA | Mortality risk: 0 and 2% | Mortality risk: 0% (2%‐4%) | Mortality risk: 3% (5%) |
a
Prevalence of dysplasia (0.20) x progression probability to PC given the presence of dysplasia (0.90) = 0.18.
b
Analysis performed on individuals already diagnoses with PC. Consequences of earlier detection were evaluated.