Table 1.

Causal effect estimates of poverty status on likelihood of common mental disorder (with 95% confidence intervals)

	Binary poverty status	Moving into poverty	Moving out of poverty
Odds ratio	1.17 (1.12, 1.24)	1.21 (1.13, 1.30)	0.90 (0.85, 0.97)
Absolute risk difference	2.15% (1.45%, 2.84%)	2.46% (1.56%, 3.36%)	−1.49% (–2.46%, –0.53%)
Prevalence in unexposed	20.59% (20.29%, 20.88%)	18.34% (18.12%, 18.55%)	27.29% (26.78%, 27.81%)
Population attr. fraction	4.78% (3.38%, 6.19%)	6.34% (4.23%, 8.45%)	−2.81% (–4.46%, –1.15%)
n	45 497 (202 297 obs)	39 772 (156 414 obs)	18 206 (45 769 obs)

Adjusted for both time invariant (gender, education, ethnicity) and time-varying confounders [age, age squared, employment status (current and 1 year lagged), benefit status (lagged), home ownership status (lagged), marital status (lagged), number of children (lagged), government office region (lagged), 12-item Short Form survey (SF-12) physical health component (lagged), SF-12 mental health component (lagged) and previous indication of common mental disorder (1 year lagged GHQ caseness)]. Absolute risk difference indicates %-point change. Columns 2 and 3 show results of sensitivity analysis separating transitions above and below the poverty threshold. Reference group for transition into poverty is those not in poverty in both years; reference group for transition out of poverty is those in poverty in both years.

Attr., attributable; obs, observations; GHQ, General Health Questionnaire.