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. 2023 Apr 19;14:2235. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-37944-5

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© The Author(s) 2023

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — Spatial variation in July 2021 (round 24) in (a) CDC nationwide serosurvey seroprevalence, (b) estimated proportion infected, (c) proportion of the population with a complete series of a vaccine, (d) estimated proportion infected and/or vaccinated (EPIV; assuming independent probabilities of having had a natural infection and being vaccinated), (e) round-by-round Pearson correlation between the proportion of the population vaccinated and the estimated proportion infected (shaded areas show the 95% uncertainty intervals for a two-sided test), and (f) example time series of seroprevalence estimates (black points), estimated proportion infected (blue lines; shaded areas show the uncertainty envelopes due to the uncertainty in the model fit and in the selection of times to seroreversion and lead or lag between seroprevalence and reported cases), and proportion of the population vaccinated with a full series (red lines) for two states. a–d show maps for July 2021 (round 24); its point in time is shown in (f) as vertical gray dashed lines. In (e), a negative correlation means that states with a higher vaccination coverage tended to be those with lower proportion infected. See Supplementary Fig. 9 for time series like those in (f) for all states.