Table 1.
Regions where a record-breaking event is most likely
| Region | Return period of record event (years) | Current record (°C) | 1-in-100 event (°C) | Record minus 1-in-100 (°C) | Population (2020, in millions) | Projected growth by 2050 (ssp5, %) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia, far eastern | 70.6 | 32.4 | 32.9 | 0.5 | 1.43 | 1.01 |
| Central Americaa | 78.1 | 36.2 | 36.6 | 0.4 | 45.47 | 1.05 |
| Afghanistan | 83.9 | 37.8 | 37.9 | 0.1 | 38.76 | 1.46 |
| Papua New Guinea | 89.6 | 32.5 | 32.6 | 0.1 | 7.49 | 1.26 |
| Central Europeb | 91.4 | 36.6 | 36.9 | 0.3 | 110.28 | 1.15 |
| Argentina, northwestern | 91.7 | 33.8 | 33.9 | 0.1 | 4.13 | 1.01 |
| Australia, Queensland | 94.2 | 44.2 | 44.3 | 0.1 | 0.40 | 1.66 |
| China, Beijing | 99.8 | 37.6 | 37.8 | 0.2 | 250.30 | 0.93 |
From the 136 regions where reanalyses datasets agree, the table lists the regions with a return period of a record below 100 years, that return period, the current record, adjusted to the present day using global mean surface temperature (GMST), 1-in-100 event magnitude, and population data33. See methods for further details.
aRegion: Central American Integrated System, which includes Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
bRegion: European Economic Area (central), which includes Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg.
Note: Regions in bold are developing countries (defined by the United Nations Human Development Index34), values in bold are the more noteworthy.