Table 5.

Percent change in indicators in 2025 and 2030 relative to the BAU 2020 scenario in 310 SMC-eligible areas

Scenario	U5 incidence percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%)	U5 mortality percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%)	U5 incidence percent change in 2030 relative to BAU in 2020 (%)	U5 mortality percent change in 2030 relative to BAU 2020 (%)
1	− 4.4 (− 3.8, − 5.3)	− 12.7 (− 7.1, − 18.5)	0.5 (1.1, − 0.2)	− 6.5 (1.9, − 12.7)
3	− 35.7 (− 34.8, − 36.3)	− 54.3 (− 51.7, − 57.7)	− 34.7 (− 34.1, − 35.5)	− 61.2 (− 58.3, − 63.4)
4	− 42.4 (− 42.2, − 42.7)	− 59 (− 55.6, − 63.2)	− 43.4 (− 42.9, − 43.7)	− 68.9 (− 67.1, − 70.8)