Table 2.
Hazard ratios (95% CIs) for the predictor variables of esophageal cancer in the China Kadoorie Biobank.
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Cases (n) | Cases/person years (1/100,000) | Age-only model, HRa (95% CI) | Simple model, HR (95% CI) | Intermediate model, HR (95% CI) | Full model, HR (95% CI) | |||||||
| Spline basis of age (knots: 30, 60, 70, 90) | |||||||||||||
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First | N/Ab | N/A | 3.56 (3.29-3.86) | 3.28 (3.03-3.56) | 3.30 (3.04-3.59) | 3.28 (3.02-3.56) | ||||||
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Second | N/A | N/A | 1.17 (1.11-1.23) | 1.15 (1.09-1.21) | 1.14 (1.09-1.20) | 1.14 (1.09-1.20) | ||||||
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Third | N/A | N/A | 1.02 (1.00-1.04) | 1.00 (0.98-1.02) | 1.00 (0.98-1.02) | 1.00 (0.98-1.02) | ||||||
| Sex | |||||||||||||
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Male | 1757 | 79.12 | N/A | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||||
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Female | 793 | 24.02 | N/A | 0.31 (0.28-0.34) | 0.40 (0.36-0.44) | 0.42 (0.37-0.46) | ||||||
| High-risk areac | |||||||||||||
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No | 858 | 20.22 | N/A | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||||
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Yes | 1692 | 132.22 | N/A | 6.31 (5.81-6.86) | 6.07 (5.58-6.60) | 5.61 (5.14-6.13) | ||||||
| Highest education | |||||||||||||
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Illiterate or primary school | 1917 | 69.06 | N/A | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||||
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Middle or high school | 598 | 24.68 | N/A | 0.60 (0.55-0.66) | 0.65 (0.59-0.72) | 0.68 (0.62-0.76) | ||||||
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College or university | 35 | 10.82 | N/A | 0.32 (0.23-0.44) | 0.37 (0.26-0.52) | 0.45 (0.32-0.63) | ||||||
| Family history of cancer | |||||||||||||
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No | 1830 | 39.88 | N/A | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||||
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Yes | 720 | 77.14 | N/A | 1.71 (1.57-1.86) | 1.78 (1.63-1.94) | 1.74 (1.59-1.89) | ||||||
| Current smoking | |||||||||||||
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No | 1336 | 32.72 | N/A | N/A | Reference | Reference | ||||||
| Cigarettes or equivalent per day among smokers | |||||||||||||
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<30 | 979 | 79.48 | N/A | N/A | 1.15 (1.05-1.27) | 1.12 (1.02-1.24) | ||||||
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≥30 | 235 | 112.95 | N/A | N/A | 1.25 (1.07-1.47) | 1.24 (1.06-1.45) | ||||||
| Daily alcohol use | |||||||||||||
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No | 1933 | 38.43 | N/A | N/A | Reference | Reference | ||||||
| Grams of pure alcohol per day among alcohol consumers | |||||||||||||
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<30 | 70 | 56.84 | N/A | N/A | 0.97 (0.77-1.24) | 1.03 (0.81-1.30) | ||||||
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30-59 | 161 | 100.03 | N/A | N/A | 1.39 (1.18-1.64) | 1.43 (1.21-1.69) | ||||||
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≥60 | 386 | 185.48 | N/A | N/A | 2.01 (1.78-2.26) | 2.06 (1.82-2.32) | ||||||
| BMI (kg/m2) | |||||||||||||
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<18.5 | 175 | 77.77 | N/A | N/A | Reference | Reference | ||||||
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18.5-23.9 | 1482 | 51.70 | N/A | N/A | 0.73 (0.62-0.85) | 0.76 (0.65-0.88) | ||||||
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≥24.0 | 893 | 36.73 | N/A | N/A | 0.61 (0.52-0.72) | 0.64 (0.54-0.76) | ||||||
| Physical activity | |||||||||||||
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Low | 1985 | 48.10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Reference | ||||||
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Highd | 565 | 40.49 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.80 (0.73-0.88) | ||||||
| Tea temperature preference | |||||||||||||
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Not a daily drinker or warm tea drinker | 2090 | 44.96 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Reference | ||||||
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Hot tea | 311 | 48.27 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.03 (0.91-1.17) | ||||||
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Burning hot tea | 149 | 64.89 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.49 (1.25-1.77) | ||||||
| Fresh fruit consumption | |||||||||||||
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Daily | 165 | 15.74 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Reference | ||||||
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Weekly | 658 | 28.97 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.07 (0.90-1.27) | ||||||
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Less than weekly | 1727 | 78.38 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.79 (1.51-2.12) | ||||||
aHR: hazard ratio.
bN/A: not applicable.
cHigh-risk area denotes Hui county in Henan province and Pengzhou in Sichuan province in our study.
dHigh-level physical activity was defined as age-specific and sex-specific upper quarter of total physical activity level measured by metabolic equivalent of task-hours per day.