Table 1.
Prevalence and incidence under various levels of generation time (τ) and dispersion (k)
| Generation time τ (days) | Dispersion k | Total cumulative incidence (95% CI) | Underreporting ratea | Prevalenceb (95% CI) | Incidenceb (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.05 | 3.35 (1.38, 7.40) | 183.90% | 0.28 (0.10, 0.79) | 0.10 (0.04, 0.29) |
| 0.1 | 1.76 (0.72, 4.59) | 49.15% | 0.15 (0.05, 0.41) | 0.05 (0.02, 0.15) | |
| 0.15 | 1.22 (0.50, 3.20) | 3.39% | 0.10 (0.03, 0.29) | 0.04 (0.01, 0.10) | |
| 0.2 | 0.96 (0.39, 2.51) | - | 0.08 (0.03, 0.25) | 0.03 (0.01, 0.08) | |
| 3 | 0.05 | 2.23 (0.92, 5.85) | 88.98% | 0.19 (0.06, 0.52) | 0.07 (0.02, 0.19) |
| 0.1 | 1.17 (0.48, 3.06) | - | 0.10 (0.03, 0.27) | 0.04 (0.01, 0.10) | |
| 0.15 | 0.82 (0.34, 2.13) | - | 0.07 (0.02, 0.19) | 0.03 (0.00, 0.07) | |
| 0.2 | 0.64 (0.26, 1.67) | - | 0.05 (0.02, 0.15) | 0.02 (0.00, 0.05) |
aCalculated by the mean total cumulative incidence in comparison to 1.18 million reported cases.
bMillion cases per day, at the inferred outbreak peak from 28 Feb to 6 March.