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. 2022 Sep 30;163(3):719–730. doi: 10.1016/j.chest.2022.09.030

Table 2.

Probability of Lung Cancer by Patient and Nodule Characteristics

Variable Lung Cancer Diagnoses Within 2 Y of Nodule Detection Probability of Lung Cancer (95% CI), %
Age, y
 < 35 0 0.0 (0.0-1.9)
 35-44 1 0.3 (0.1-1.6)
 45-54 20 2.3 (1.5-3.5)
 55-64 51 3.0 (2.3-3.9)
 65-74 91 4.6 (3.7-5.6)
 75-84 78 5.1 (4.1-6.3)
 85+ 24 4.2 (2.9-6.2)
Sex
 Female 156 3.9 (3.3-4.5)
 Male 109 3.4 (2.8-4.1)
BMI, kg/m2
 Underweight (< 18.5) 5 4.2 (1.8-9.4)
 Normal (18.5-24.9) 77 4.0 (3.2-5.0)
 Overweight (25-29.9) 95 3.9 (3.2-4.7)
 Obesity (≥ 30) 88 3.2 (2.6-3.9)
Prior nonlung malignancy
 No 186 3.7 (3.2-4.3)
 Yes 79 3.5 (2.8-4.3)
Smoking status
 Never 42 1.3 (1.0-1.8)
 Ever (former or current) 223 5.5 (4.9-6.3)
Nodule size, mm
 ≤ 4 13 0.5 (0.3-0.9)
 > 4-≤ 6 16 0.8 (0.5-1.4)
 > 6-≤ 8 19 1.9 (1.2-2.9)
 > 8-≤ 10 16 2.9 (1.8-4.6)
 > 10-≤ 20 127 12.3 (10.5-14.5)
 > 20-≤ 30 74 25.3 (20.6-30.5)
No. of nodules
 Single 118 3.8 (3.2-4.5)
 Multiple 147 3.6 (3.0-4.2)
Nodule location
 Nonupper lobe 111 2.6 (2.1-3.1)
 Upper lobe 154 5.3 (4.5-6.2)
Health system
 A 57 2.5 (1.9-3.2)
 B 208 4.2 (3.7-4.8)
Year of nodule diagnosis
 2005 16 5.2 (3.2-8.2)
 2006 21 4.3 (2.8-6.5)
 2007 21 3.9 (2.5-5.8)
 2008 22 4.0 (2.6-5.9)
 2009 24 4.2 (2.8-6.2)
 2010 21 3.6 (2.5-5.5)
 2011 22 3.1 (2.1-4.6)
 2012 34 4.3 (3.1-5.9)
 2013 31 3.6 (2.6-5.1)
 2014 34 3.7 (2.7-5.1)
 2015 19 2.1 (1.3-3.2)