Table 2.
Probability of Lung Cancer by Patient and Nodule Characteristics
| Variable | Lung Cancer Diagnoses Within 2 Y of Nodule Detection | Probability of Lung Cancer (95% CI), % |
|---|---|---|
| Age, y | ||
| < 35 | 0 | 0.0 (0.0-1.9) |
| 35-44 | 1 | 0.3 (0.1-1.6) |
| 45-54 | 20 | 2.3 (1.5-3.5) |
| 55-64 | 51 | 3.0 (2.3-3.9) |
| 65-74 | 91 | 4.6 (3.7-5.6) |
| 75-84 | 78 | 5.1 (4.1-6.3) |
| 85+ | 24 | 4.2 (2.9-6.2) |
| Sex | ||
| Female | 156 | 3.9 (3.3-4.5) |
| Male | 109 | 3.4 (2.8-4.1) |
| BMI, kg/m2 | ||
| Underweight (< 18.5) | 5 | 4.2 (1.8-9.4) |
| Normal (18.5-24.9) | 77 | 4.0 (3.2-5.0) |
| Overweight (25-29.9) | 95 | 3.9 (3.2-4.7) |
| Obesity (≥ 30) | 88 | 3.2 (2.6-3.9) |
| Prior nonlung malignancy | ||
| No | 186 | 3.7 (3.2-4.3) |
| Yes | 79 | 3.5 (2.8-4.3) |
| Smoking status | ||
| Never | 42 | 1.3 (1.0-1.8) |
| Ever (former or current) | 223 | 5.5 (4.9-6.3) |
| Nodule size, mm | ||
| ≤ 4 | 13 | 0.5 (0.3-0.9) |
| > 4-≤ 6 | 16 | 0.8 (0.5-1.4) |
| > 6-≤ 8 | 19 | 1.9 (1.2-2.9) |
| > 8-≤ 10 | 16 | 2.9 (1.8-4.6) |
| > 10-≤ 20 | 127 | 12.3 (10.5-14.5) |
| > 20-≤ 30 | 74 | 25.3 (20.6-30.5) |
| No. of nodules | ||
| Single | 118 | 3.8 (3.2-4.5) |
| Multiple | 147 | 3.6 (3.0-4.2) |
| Nodule location | ||
| Nonupper lobe | 111 | 2.6 (2.1-3.1) |
| Upper lobe | 154 | 5.3 (4.5-6.2) |
| Health system | ||
| A | 57 | 2.5 (1.9-3.2) |
| B | 208 | 4.2 (3.7-4.8) |
| Year of nodule diagnosis | ||
| 2005 | 16 | 5.2 (3.2-8.2) |
| 2006 | 21 | 4.3 (2.8-6.5) |
| 2007 | 21 | 3.9 (2.5-5.8) |
| 2008 | 22 | 4.0 (2.6-5.9) |
| 2009 | 24 | 4.2 (2.8-6.2) |
| 2010 | 21 | 3.6 (2.5-5.5) |
| 2011 | 22 | 3.1 (2.1-4.6) |
| 2012 | 34 | 4.3 (3.1-5.9) |
| 2013 | 31 | 3.6 (2.6-5.1) |
| 2014 | 34 | 3.7 (2.7-5.1) |
| 2015 | 19 | 2.1 (1.3-3.2) |