TABLE 3.

Cross-validation AUCs, listed as mean ± 1.96 standard deviation (SD).

	Full model*	CT-limited model**
5-year COPDGene P1–P2 (training)
GOLD 0	0.653 ± 0.025 (p < 0.001)	0.592 ± 0.027 (p < 0.001)
GOLD 1–2	0.713 ± 0.028 (p < 0.001)	0.650 ± 0.030 (p < 0.001)
5-year COPDGene P2–P3 (Internal validation)
GOLD 0	0.622 ± 0.048 (p < 0.001)	0.562 ± 0.048 (p = 0.028)
GOLD 1–2	0.644 ± 0.054 (p < 0.001)	0.591 ± 0.059 (p = 0.008)
10-year COPDGene P1–P3 (Internal validation)
GOLD 0	0.680 ± 0.053 (p < 0.001)	0.603 ± 0.057 (p = 0.005)
GOLD 1–2	0.753 ± 0.047 (p < 0.001)	0.679 ± 0.028 (p < 0.001)
SPIROMICS (external validation)
GOLD 0	0.622 ± 0.081 (p = 0.021)	0.571 ± 0.089 (p = 0.120)
GOLD 1–2	0.640 ± 0.059 (p < 0.001)	0.568 ± 0.059 (p = 0.056)

*GOLD 0 full model variables: post bronchodilator FEV₁% predicted, BDR, CT-derived expiratory lung volume, SGRQ score, TBV, sex, smoking status, post bronchodilator FEV1/FVC, height, 6MWD, PRMlower lobes fSAD > 10%, cortical.T12, age.

*GOLD 1–2 full model variables: BDR, age, PRM_{lower lobes fSAD} > 10%, weight, TBV, post bronchodilator FEV₁% predicted, SGRQ score, CT-derived expiratory lung volume, race, smoking status, height, 6MWD, PRM_{upper lobes emphysema} > 2%, tBV5.

**GOLD 0 CT-limited model variables: CT-derived expiratory lung volume, TBV, sex, PRM_{lower lobes fSAD} > 10%, cortical.T12, age.

**GOLD 1–2 CT-limited model variables: age, PRM_{lower lobes fSAD} > 10%, TBV, CT-derived expiratory lung volume, PRM_{upper lobes emphysema} > 2%, tBV5.