Table 4.
HRs (95% CIs) of the predictors from the three modelsa
| Predictor | 37-condition model | 20-condition model | Reduced model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age, 10 years | 1.22 (1.02 to 1.47) | 1.24 (1.03 to 1.49) | — |
| [Age, 10 years]2 | 1.05 (1.03 to 1.06) | 1.05 (1.03 to 1.06) | 1.06 (1.06 to 1.06) |
| Sex, male | 1.33 (1.23 to 1.45) | 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39) | 1.34 (1.24 to 1.46) |
| Cancer in the past 5 years | 3.31 (2.99 to 3.67) | 3.23 (2.92 to 3.58) | 3.33 (3.00 to 3.69) |
| Dementia | 2.57 (2.33 to 2.84) | 2.60 (2.35 to 2.87) | 2.55 (2.32 to 2.82) |
| Alcohol problems | 2.17 (1.84 to 2.55) | 2.52 (2.18 to 2.92) | 2.21 (1.88 to 2.60) |
| Multiple sclerosis | 2.13 (1.32 to 3.44) | — | 2.14 (1.33 to 3.46) |
| Chronic liver disease and viral hepatitis | 1.98 (1.57 to 2.49) | — | 1.99 (1.58 to 2.50) |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 1.96 (1.76 to 2.18) | 1.97 (1.77 to 2.18) | 2.02 (1.83 to 2.23) |
| Learning disability | 1.88 (1.14 to 3.10) | — | 1.89 (1.15 to 3.11) |
| Parkinsonism | 1.71 (1.39 to 2.11) | — | 1.73 (1.40 to 2.13) |
| Heart failure | 1.66 (1.49 to 1.85) | 1.67 (1.50 to 1.86) | 1.66 (1.49 to 1.84) |
| Epilepsy | 1.59 (1.25 to 2.02) | 1.61 (1.27 to 2.04) | 1.61 (1.27 to 2.04) |
| Schizophrenia or bipolar disorder | 1.59 (1.22 to 2.06) | 1.65 (1.27 to 2.13) | 1.62 (1.25 to 2.10) |
| Psychoactive substance misuse | 1.57 (1.20 to 2.04) | — | 1.57 (1.20 to 2.04) |
| Painful condition | 1.55 (1.42 to 1.68) | 1.56 (1.43 to 1.69) | 1.56 (1.44 to 1.69) |
| Constipation | 1.47 (1.33 to 1.62) | 1.51 (1.37 to 1.67) | 1.47 (1.33 to 1.62) |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 1.39 (1.07 to 1.81) | — | 1.40 (1.08 to 1.82) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 1.39 (1.27 to 1.53) | 1.39 (1.26 to 1.52) | 1.40 (1.27 to 1.53) |
| Anxiety or depression | 1.38 (1.27 to 1.50) | 1.41 (1.29 to 1.53) | 1.38 (1.27 to 1.50) |
| Diabetes | 1.31 (1.20 to 1.43) | 1.33 (1.22 to 1.45) | 1.34 (1.23 to 1.46) |
| Psoriasis or eczema | 1.27 (1.03 to 1.57) | — | — |
| Chronic kidney disease | 1.24 (1.14 to 1.35) | 1.24 (1.14 to 1.36) | 1.24 (1.14 to 1.35) |
| Anorexia or bulimia | 1.22 (0.66 to 2.28) | — | — |
| Peptic ulcer | 1.13 (0.98 to 1.30) | — | — |
| Stroke and TIA | 1.11 (1.00 to 1.24) | 1.11 (1.00 to 1.23) | – |
| Bronchiectasis | 1.11 (0.87 to 1.41) | — | — |
| Asthma currently treated | 1.05 (0.93 to 1.18) | 1.04 (0.93 to 1.17) | — |
| Hypertension | 1.04 (0.96 to 1.13) | 1.04 (0.96 to 1.13) | — |
| Thyroid disorders | 1.03 (0.92 to 1.14) | — | — |
| Coronary heart disease | 1.00 (0.91 to 1.09) | 0.99 (0.91 to 1.08) | — |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 0.98 (0.85 to 1.12) | 0.98 (0.86 to 1.13) | — |
| Chronic sinusitis | 1.98 (1.57 to 2.49) | — | — |
| Blindness and low vision | 0.96 (0.84 to 1.11) | — | — |
| Hearing loss | 0.92 (0.85 to 1.00) | 0.92 (0.85 to 1.00) | — |
| Diverticular disease of intestine | 0.92 (0.82 to 1.02) | — | — |
| Disorder of prostate | 0.83 (0.74 to 0.93) | — | 0.83 (0.74 to 0.93) |
| Irritable bowel syndrome | 0.83 (0.71 to 0.95) | 0.81 (0.70 to 0.94) | 0.82 (0.71 to 0.94) |
| Inflammatory bowel disease | 0.65 (0.43 to 0.97) | — | — |
| Migraine | 0.59 (0.25 to 1.42) | — | — |
a
A blank cell indicates that the risk factor concerned was not included in the relevant model. HR = hazard ratio. TIA = transient ischaemic attack.